Des Moines Register: Candidates in Iowa play the expectations game
By David Yepsen/Des Moines Register
January 19, 2000
Web posted at: 12:21 p.m. EST (1721 GMT)
DES MOINES, Iowa (Des Moines Register) -- The focus of the 2000 presidential campaign in Iowa shifted Tuesday from issues to questions of
bounce, expectations and winnowing.
During the final week of the campaign before next Monday's Iowa caucuses, American presidential
politics will be dominated by these three questions.
Will any candidate get a bounce out of Iowa into the New Hampshire primary Feb. 1? Which candidate
fell short of expectations? Was anyone winnowed out of contention?
"In politics, if you win by an insufficient score, you may be a loser," said Hugh Winebrenner, a Drake
University caucus historian. "If you lose, but not too badly, you may be a winner.
"The whole game is the expectation that is set by pundits and reporters who play the game," he said.
The expectations game was fully under way Tuesday in Iowa. Former Sen. Bill Bradley was trying to
lower expectations, reminding reporters in Iowa City that when Sen. Edward Kennedy challenged
President Jimmy Carter in 1980, Kennedy received only 31.2 percent of the caucus vote to Carter's 59.1
percent.
At almost the same time, Vice President Al Gore's aides were emphasizing in south-central Iowa how
much time Bradley had spent in the state, trying to raise expectations of how well Bradley should do.
The aides are mindful that recent polls show the vice president with a 20 percentage point lead in the
state despite Bradley's extensive effort in Iowa.
Republican Steve Forbes, who trails Texas Gov. George W. Bush substantially in polls, was promising "a
nice surprise" finish in the GOP race.
Every campaign's goal is to convince reporters that, come caucus night, their candidate did better
than expected. That, in turn, can mean more coverage and hype heading into New Hampshire.
"The nature of the game is meeting your expectations. If if you meet your expectations, you are a
winner. If you exceed your expectations, you're a winner. If you fail to meet expectations, even
though you may have won in an absolute sense, you can be a loser," Winebrenner said.
On the Republican side, Bush is the heavy favorite.
"If he doesn't achieve 40 or 45 percent, maybe more, he will not be judged a winner in Iowa,"
Winebrenner said. "On the other hand, if Steve Forbes breaks 25 to 30 percent, the press will be
saying there's a second challenger in New Hampshire," where Sen. John McCain is close to Bush in
polls.
Among Democrats, "if Al Gore were to have a weak victory here, a few-point victory, that would be
judged a weak victory, not meeting expectations, and he would probably be pummeled as a result because
he is expected to win big in Iowa," Winebrenner said.
Expectations are set informally by the candidates, staff members and reporters.
Candidates avoid using numbers for what they think they need to win in Iowa. Using a number sets a
marker that can be used against a candidate who fails to achieve that total.
On the other hand, a candidate who tries to use a low number gets dismissed by reporters as
low-balling.
Expectations are set by factors such as poll ratings, endorsements, or geographic advantages or
disadvantages.
Historically, the results in Iowa have had some impact on the standing of candidates in New Hampshire.
It sometimes is known as the Iowa "bounce" or "bump."
"When a poorly known candidate emerges as the alternative to the front-runner in Iowa, that gives the
poorly known alternative a bump here," said Dante Scala, a professor of politics at St. Anselm College
in New Hampshire. "What happens in New Hampshire in the week between the Iowa caucus and the New
Hampshire primary is it becomes a two-man race, and that is the way the story is told."
So how could the bounce play this year?
Any Iowa bounce could affect independent or unregistered voters in New Hampshire, Scala said.
An independent voter in New Hampshire can go to the polls on primary day and request either a
Democratic or Republican ballot. With Democrat Bradley and Republican McCain actively competing for
votes from independents in New Hampshire, where the race is much tighter in both parties, a good
showing in Iowa might prompt independents to turn out, Scala said.
An Iowa bounce also could help Steve Forbes, Scala said. In New Hampshire, the Republican race is
perceived as a two-man contest between Bush and McCain. But a strong Forbes showing in Iowa could help
the publisher break through that perception.
"If he brings Bush down below 40 percent and if Forbes could somehow get into the low 30s and make the
margin single-digits, then Forbes gets more attention than he might otherwise. A lot of people here
have pretty much dismissed him," Scala said.
"If Forbes manages to pull that off, then that takes away some of McCain's thunder," he said.
"McCain's got to hope Bush comes in 40 to 45 percent, Forbes in at 20 percent or under and McCain come
in with a third-place finish," he said.
McCain is not expected to do well in Iowa because he largely has bypassed the state with the exception
of two Republican debates. Iowa is something of a no-lose proposition for him, provided Forbes doesn't
make an exceptionally strong showing.
"Voters who are for McCain now in New Hampshire are not going to turn away from McCain because he did
poorly in Iowa because there's no expectation for McCain in Iowa," Scala said.
On the Democratic side, Scala said, the perception in his state is that "Bradley made this big push in
Iowa and now it doesn't seem to be doing much for him out there.
"If Gore has a big victory in Iowa, he tries to come in to New Hampshire, ride the wave and try to
seal the deal."
Conversely, if Bradley does well in Iowa, that would embarrass Gore and boost Bradley's stature in New
Hampshire.
Scala said even a small bounce could have an impact on New Hampshire because the Bradley-Gore and
McCain-Bush races there are within a few percentage points, according to most polls.
"It is close enough that a few points either way could change things," he said.
Former state Democratic chairman Dave Nagle of Waterloo warned that sometimes the bounce can backfire.
"There's almost a perverse reaction in New Hampshire to anything Iowa does," he said, noting that in
recent years there are many examples of candidates who exceed their expectations in Iowa only to
become targets for opponents in New Hampshire.
In recent years "the role of Iowa is to narrow the field, to select the challengers, not to make the
ultimate determination" of who will be the nominee, Nagle said.
Throughout the history of the caucuses, the eventual nominee of each party was among the top three
finishers in the Iowa caucuses, he said. Finish lower than that, and it can be difficult to raise the
money necessary to continue.
"You can survive and compete again if you can come in as well as third," Nagle said.
Iowa bounce Here's a look at past examples of what has been dubbed the Iowa bounce. The bounce can
come a week later in New Hampshire or sometimes several years down the line:
--1972: Democrats. George McGovern finishes a strong second behind Ed Muskie in Iowa. McGovern's
showing reveals Muskie's weaknesses and helps McGovern win subsequent contests and eventually the
nomination.
--1976: Democrats. Jimmy Carter, an unknown former Georgia governor, finishes ahead of all other
candidates in Iowa and rides the win all the way to the White House.
--1980: Republicans. George Bush, a little-known former United Nations ambassador, beats front-runner
Ronald Reagan in Iowa. Reagan eventually prevails but taps Bush to be his running mate.
--1984: Democrats. Gary Hart finishes a distant second to Walter Mondale. That breaks Hart out of the
pack of unknown Democratic candidates and helps him win the New Hampshire primary.
--1988: Democrats. Dick Gephardt, an unknown Missouri congressman, wins in Iowa. He doesn't capture
the nomination, but the win elevates his stature as a national political leader.
--1988: Republicans. Christian broadcasting executive Pat Robertson finishes ahead of Vice President
George Bush, who finishes third. The bounce isn't enough to propel Robertson to the nomination, but it
establishes social conservatives as a force in American politics.
--1992: No bounce. Bush is unopposed on the Republican side, and Sen. Tom Harkin's favorite-son
candidacy leads other Democrats to skip Iowa.
--1996: Republicans. Pat Buchanan comes in second in Iowa, which helps him win New Hampshire, although
Bob Dole wins the nomination.
|