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Des Moines Register: Candidates in Iowa play the expectations game

By David Yepsen/Des Moines Register

January 19, 2000
Web posted at: 12:21 p.m. EST (1721 GMT)

Des Moines Register DES MOINES, Iowa (Des Moines Register) -- The focus of the 2000 presidential campaign in Iowa shifted Tuesday from issues to questions of bounce, expectations and winnowing.

During the final week of the campaign before next Monday's Iowa caucuses, American presidential politics will be dominated by these three questions.

Will any candidate get a bounce out of Iowa into the New Hampshire primary Feb. 1? Which candidate fell short of expectations? Was anyone winnowed out of contention?

"In politics, if you win by an insufficient score, you may be a loser," said Hugh Winebrenner, a Drake University caucus historian. "If you lose, but not too badly, you may be a winner.

"The whole game is the expectation that is set by pundits and reporters who play the game," he said.

The expectations game was fully under way Tuesday in Iowa. Former Sen. Bill Bradley was trying to lower expectations, reminding reporters in Iowa City that when Sen. Edward Kennedy challenged President Jimmy Carter in 1980, Kennedy received only 31.2 percent of the caucus vote to Carter's 59.1 percent.

At almost the same time, Vice President Al Gore's aides were emphasizing in south-central Iowa how much time Bradley had spent in the state, trying to raise expectations of how well Bradley should do. The aides are mindful that recent polls show the vice president with a 20 percentage point lead in the state despite Bradley's extensive effort in Iowa.

Republican Steve Forbes, who trails Texas Gov. George W. Bush substantially in polls, was promising "a nice surprise" finish in the GOP race.

Every campaign's goal is to convince reporters that, come caucus night, their candidate did better than expected. That, in turn, can mean more coverage and hype heading into New Hampshire.

"The nature of the game is meeting your expectations. If if you meet your expectations, you are a winner. If you exceed your expectations, you're a winner. If you fail to meet expectations, even though you may have won in an absolute sense, you can be a loser," Winebrenner said.

On the Republican side, Bush is the heavy favorite.

"If he doesn't achieve 40 or 45 percent, maybe more, he will not be judged a winner in Iowa," Winebrenner said. "On the other hand, if Steve Forbes breaks 25 to 30 percent, the press will be saying there's a second challenger in New Hampshire," where Sen. John McCain is close to Bush in polls.

Among Democrats, "if Al Gore were to have a weak victory here, a few-point victory, that would be judged a weak victory, not meeting expectations, and he would probably be pummeled as a result because he is expected to win big in Iowa," Winebrenner said.

Expectations are set informally by the candidates, staff members and reporters.

Candidates avoid using numbers for what they think they need to win in Iowa. Using a number sets a marker that can be used against a candidate who fails to achieve that total.

On the other hand, a candidate who tries to use a low number gets dismissed by reporters as low-balling.

Expectations are set by factors such as poll ratings, endorsements, or geographic advantages or disadvantages.

Historically, the results in Iowa have had some impact on the standing of candidates in New Hampshire. It sometimes is known as the Iowa "bounce" or "bump."

"When a poorly known candidate emerges as the alternative to the front-runner in Iowa, that gives the poorly known alternative a bump here," said Dante Scala, a professor of politics at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire. "What happens in New Hampshire in the week between the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary is it becomes a two-man race, and that is the way the story is told."

So how could the bounce play this year?

Any Iowa bounce could affect independent or unregistered voters in New Hampshire, Scala said.

An independent voter in New Hampshire can go to the polls on primary day and request either a Democratic or Republican ballot. With Democrat Bradley and Republican McCain actively competing for votes from independents in New Hampshire, where the race is much tighter in both parties, a good showing in Iowa might prompt independents to turn out, Scala said.

An Iowa bounce also could help Steve Forbes, Scala said. In New Hampshire, the Republican race is perceived as a two-man contest between Bush and McCain. But a strong Forbes showing in Iowa could help the publisher break through that perception.

"If he brings Bush down below 40 percent and if Forbes could somehow get into the low 30s and make the margin single-digits, then Forbes gets more attention than he might otherwise. A lot of people here have pretty much dismissed him," Scala said.

"If Forbes manages to pull that off, then that takes away some of McCain's thunder," he said. "McCain's got to hope Bush comes in 40 to 45 percent, Forbes in at 20 percent or under and McCain come in with a third-place finish," he said.

McCain is not expected to do well in Iowa because he largely has bypassed the state with the exception of two Republican debates. Iowa is something of a no-lose proposition for him, provided Forbes doesn't make an exceptionally strong showing.

"Voters who are for McCain now in New Hampshire are not going to turn away from McCain because he did poorly in Iowa because there's no expectation for McCain in Iowa," Scala said.

On the Democratic side, Scala said, the perception in his state is that "Bradley made this big push in Iowa and now it doesn't seem to be doing much for him out there.

"If Gore has a big victory in Iowa, he tries to come in to New Hampshire, ride the wave and try to seal the deal."

Conversely, if Bradley does well in Iowa, that would embarrass Gore and boost Bradley's stature in New Hampshire.

Scala said even a small bounce could have an impact on New Hampshire because the Bradley-Gore and McCain-Bush races there are within a few percentage points, according to most polls.

"It is close enough that a few points either way could change things," he said.

Former state Democratic chairman Dave Nagle of Waterloo warned that sometimes the bounce can backfire.

"There's almost a perverse reaction in New Hampshire to anything Iowa does," he said, noting that in recent years there are many examples of candidates who exceed their expectations in Iowa only to become targets for opponents in New Hampshire.

In recent years "the role of Iowa is to narrow the field, to select the challengers, not to make the ultimate determination" of who will be the nominee, Nagle said.

Throughout the history of the caucuses, the eventual nominee of each party was among the top three finishers in the Iowa caucuses, he said. Finish lower than that, and it can be difficult to raise the money necessary to continue.

"You can survive and compete again if you can come in as well as third," Nagle said.

Iowa bounce Here's a look at past examples of what has been dubbed the Iowa bounce. The bounce can come a week later in New Hampshire or sometimes several years down the line:

--1972: Democrats. George McGovern finishes a strong second behind Ed Muskie in Iowa. McGovern's showing reveals Muskie's weaknesses and helps McGovern win subsequent contests and eventually the nomination.

--1976: Democrats. Jimmy Carter, an unknown former Georgia governor, finishes ahead of all other candidates in Iowa and rides the win all the way to the White House.

--1980: Republicans. George Bush, a little-known former United Nations ambassador, beats front-runner Ronald Reagan in Iowa. Reagan eventually prevails but taps Bush to be his running mate.

--1984: Democrats. Gary Hart finishes a distant second to Walter Mondale. That breaks Hart out of the pack of unknown Democratic candidates and helps him win the New Hampshire primary.

--1988: Democrats. Dick Gephardt, an unknown Missouri congressman, wins in Iowa. He doesn't capture the nomination, but the win elevates his stature as a national political leader.

--1988: Republicans. Christian broadcasting executive Pat Robertson finishes ahead of Vice President George Bush, who finishes third. The bounce isn't enough to propel Robertson to the nomination, but it establishes social conservatives as a force in American politics.

--1992: No bounce. Bush is unopposed on the Republican side, and Sen. Tom Harkin's favorite-son candidacy leads other Democrats to skip Iowa.

--1996: Republicans. Pat Buchanan comes in second in Iowa, which helps him win New Hampshire, although Bob Dole wins the nomination.

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