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Poll: Bush trouncing McCain in South Carolina

By Keating Holland/CNN

January 30, 2000
Web posted at: 3:56 p.m. EST (2056 GMT)

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush holds a 52 percent to 32 percent lead in South Carolina among likely Republican primary voters, with all other candidates polling in the single digits, according to a new CNN-Time poll released Sunday.

CNN and Time conducted interviews with 531 likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina on January 26 and 27, 2000.

Six in 10 said they think that Bush would do a better job than McCain on education; more than half feel he would do a better job on taxes and the economy.

McCain has a large advantage on campaign finance reform and a smaller one on world affairs. Although he is trailing Bush by 20 points, McCain is now almost as well-known and well-liked as the Texas governor.

Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes are not as familiar to likely primary voters.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is that a majority of likely GOP primary voters say that South Carolina should stop flying the Confederate battle flag over the state capitol building in Columbia.

Only 32 percent say that the state should continue to display the flag over the capitol.

But that does not seem to have an effect on the GOP primary -- 82% of likely primary voters agree with Bush's decision not to take a position on the issue because it is up to South Carolina to decide.

Why South Carolina?

Why? Because South Carolina is one of the first GOP tests after New Hampshire, and John McCain has poured a lot of time and resources into that state. It is widely assumed that if McCain has any chance of winning the Republican nomination, he must do well in New Hampshire and then parlay that showing into a victory in South Carolina.

If George W. Bush loses in New Hampshire, he may be able to quickly recover with a win in South Carolina, which was crucial to his father's chances in 1988, and to Bob Dole in 1996. Both were able to survive early stumbles by scoring convincing wins there.

Likely Voters' Choice for Nomination
Bush52%
McCain32
Keyes5
Forbes3
Bauer1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Likely GOP Voters' View of Confederate Flag at State Capitol
Should stay32%
Should go56
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Likely GOP Voters' View of Bush's Position on Confederate Flag
Agree82%
Disagree16
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Likely Voters' View of Who Can Do a Better Job On...
 BushMcCain
Education61%25%
Taxes5731
Economy5628
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Likely Voters' View of Who Can Do a Better Job On...
 BushMcCain
Campaign finance reform36%46%
World affairs4145
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Likely Voters' Opinion of Candidates
 FavorableUnfavorable
Bush81%13%
McCain7213
Forbes4526
Keyes3912
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Very Important to Likely Voters
Education82%
Moral values79
Taxes73
Abortion51
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

ELECTION 2000

As New Hampshire primary looms, candidates set sights on voters (1-29-00)

Bradley: Might invoke 25th Amendment for heart procedure if needed (1-29-00)

Gore's lead over Bradley slips (1-29-00)

Candidates pick up pace, endorsements, in final days of New Hampshire campaign (1-28-00)

Des Moines Register: Attendance drops substantially for Iowa caucuses (1-28-00)

Bradley continues to hammer at Gore's honesty in campaign appearances (1-27-00)

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Sunday, January 30, 2000


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