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Poll: Bush lead grows as South Carolina primary nears

February 18, 2000
Web posted at: 12:24 p.m. EST (1724 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush currently holds a 52 to 40 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain among likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, with Alan Keyes winning just 4 percent, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

Bush's lead has grown slightly from a 49 to 52 percent margin over the weekend. One reason: Bush's campaign to convince South Carolinians that he is a reformer appears to be working.

In the previous poll, 44 percent said that the phrase "is a reformer" applied more to McCain than to Bush; 40 percent said it applied more to the Texas governor. Now, Bush is more likely to be viewed as a reformer by a 46 to 37 percent margin.

Tuesday night's debate on CNN's "Larry King Live" also did not help McCain. Only 19 percent of likely voters who watched the debate said that McCain did the best job in the debate. Thirty-four percent said that Bush did the best job. Both of them, however, finished behind Alan Keyes. Forty percent of all debate watchers said that Keyes did the best job in the debate.

The poll is based on interviews with 560 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters. It was conducted February 16-17 and has a sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points unless otherwise noted.

Suppose the Republican primary election for president were being held today. If you had to choose among the following candidates, which candidate would you vote for -- George W. Bush, Alan Keyes, or John McCain? (If unsure:) As of today, to which of the Republican candidates do you lean most?

 
Feb. 16-17
Feb. 11-13
Bush
52%
49%
McCain
40%
42%
Keyes
4%
5%
Other/undecided
4%
4%

Are you certain to support (candidate name) for the Republican nomination or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else for the nomination?

 
Bush Voters
McCain Voters
Certain
86%
80%
May change mind
13%
18%
Unsure
1%
2%

Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one, please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain?

Has a vision for the country's future
 
Feb. 16-17
Feb. 11-13
Bush
49%
44%
McCain
38%
38%
Both
9%
14%
Neither
2%
1%
No opinion
2%
3%

Is a reformer
 
Feb. 16-17
Feb. 11-13
Bush
46%
40%
McCain
37%
44%
Both
6%
4%
Neither
3%
3%
No opinion
8%
9%

Is a person you admire
 
Feb. 16-17
Feb. 11-13
Bush
38%
32%
McCain
45%
46%
Both
13%
16%
Neither
3%
4%
No opinion
1%
2%

Has the better chance of beating the Democratic candidate in November
 
Feb. 16-17
Feb. 11-13
Bush
58%
59%
McCain
32%
29%
Both
5%
7%
Neither
*
1%
No opinion
5%
4%

Has the necessary experience to be a good president
 
Feb. 16-17
Feb. 11-13
Bush
52%
47%
McCain
34%
35%
Both
10%
13%
Neither
2%
2%
No opinion
2%
3%

From what you know about the campaign so far, would you say George W. Bush has been attacking John McCain unfairly, or not?

 
Feb. 16-17
Feb. 11-13
Yes
35%
35%
No
59%
55%
Unsure
6%
10%

From what you know about the campaign so far, would you say John McCain has been attacking George W. Bush unfairly, or not?

 
Feb. 16-17
Feb. 11-13
Yes
39%
38%
No
55%
53%
Unsure
6%
9%

As you may know, the three major candidates for the Republican nomination participated in a debate this Tuesday evening in South Carolina that was moderated by Larry King. How much of that debate did you happen to watch -- al of it, most of it, only some of it, hardly any of it, or none of it?

All
14%
Most
14%
Only some
20%
Hardly any
9%
None
43%

(If watched all, most or some of debate:) Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate Tuesday night?

Alan Keyes
40%
George W. Bush
34%
John McCain
19%
All equally
3%
Unsure
4%

 
ELECTION 2000


CALENDAR
See how quickly the primary and caucus season will take off with this calendar.


VIDEO
Watch selected policy speeches and campaign commercials from the major presidential candidates.


WHAT'S AT STAKE


HISTORY
If you have a Flash-capable browser, take a look at the history of key events during the primary season.


CANDIDATE BIOS
Quick takes on the White House hopefuls.


RACES
If you need to know who's up in 1999 or 2000 and what seats are open launch this quick guide.


THE STATES
Who are your elected officials? What is the past presidential vote and number of electoral votes in your state? Find out with these state political and election facts.


POLLS
Check out the latest numbers or dig back into the poll archives.


WHO'S IN-WHO'S OUT
Who is running, who isn't running and who has already dropped out? Check out our tally sheet.


FOLLOW THE MONEY
How much money have the candidates raised? Here are their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission.


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Friday, February 18, 2000


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