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Poll: Bush lead grows as South Carolina primary nears
By Keating Holland/CNN
February 18, 2000
Web posted at: 12:24 p.m. EST (1724 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush currently holds a 52 to 40 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain among likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, with Alan Keyes winning just 4 percent, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.
Bush's lead has grown slightly from a 49 to 52 percent margin over the weekend. One reason: Bush's campaign to convince South Carolinians that he is a reformer appears to be working.
In the previous poll, 44 percent said that the phrase "is a reformer" applied more to McCain than to Bush; 40 percent said it applied more to the Texas governor. Now, Bush is more likely to be viewed as a reformer by a 46 to 37 percent margin.
Tuesday night's debate on CNN's "Larry King Live" also did not help McCain. Only 19 percent of likely voters who watched the debate said that McCain did the best job in the debate. Thirty-four percent said that Bush did the best job. Both of them, however, finished behind Alan Keyes. Forty percent of all debate watchers said that Keyes did the best job in the debate.
The poll is based on interviews with 560 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters. It was conducted February 16-17 and has a sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points unless otherwise noted.
Suppose the Republican primary election for president were being held today.
If you had to choose among the following candidates, which candidate would you
vote for -- George W. Bush, Alan Keyes, or John McCain? (If unsure:) As of
today, to which of the Republican candidates do you lean most?
| Feb. 16-17 | Feb. 11-13 |
Bush | 52% | 49% |
McCain | 40% | 42% |
Keyes | 4% | 5% |
Other/undecided | 4% | 4% |
Are you certain to support (candidate name) for the
Republican nomination or do you think you may change your mind and support
someone else for the nomination?
| Bush Voters | McCain Voters |
Certain | 86% | 80% |
May change mind | 13% | 18% |
Unsure | 1% | 2% |
Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For
each one, please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether
you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain?
Has a vision for the
country's future |
| Feb. 16-17 | Feb. 11-13 |
Bush | 49% | 44% |
McCain | 38% | 38% |
Both | 9% | 14% |
Neither | 2% | 1% |
No opinion | 2% | 3% |
Is a reformer |
| Feb. 16-17 | Feb. 11-13 |
Bush | 46% | 40% |
McCain | 37% | 44% |
Both | 6% | 4% |
Neither | 3% | 3% |
No opinion | 8% | 9% |
Is a person you admire |
| Feb. 16-17 | Feb. 11-13 |
Bush | 38% | 32% |
McCain | 45% | 46% |
Both | 13% | 16% |
Neither | 3% | 4% |
No opinion | 1% | 2% |
Has the better chance
of beating the
Democratic candidate
in November |
| Feb. 16-17 | Feb. 11-13 |
Bush | 58% | 59% |
McCain | 32% | 29% |
Both | 5% | 7% |
Neither | * | 1% |
No opinion | 5% | 4% |
Has the necessary
experience to be
a good president |
| Feb. 16-17 | Feb. 11-13 |
Bush | 52% | 47% |
McCain | 34% | 35% |
Both | 10% | 13% |
Neither | 2% | 2% |
No opinion | 2% | 3% |
From what you know about the campaign so far, would you say George W. Bush has
been attacking John McCain unfairly, or not?
| Feb. 16-17 | Feb. 11-13 |
Yes | 35% | 35% |
No | 59% | 55% |
Unsure | 6% | 10% |
From what you know about the campaign so far, would you say John McCain has
been attacking George W. Bush unfairly, or not?
| Feb. 16-17 | Feb. 11-13 |
Yes | 39% | 38% |
No | 55% | 53% |
Unsure | 6% | 9% |
As you may know, the three major candidates for the Republican nomination
participated in a debate this Tuesday evening in South Carolina that was
moderated by Larry King. How much of that debate did you happen to watch -- al
of it, most of it, only some of it, hardly any of it, or none of it?
All | 14% |
Most | 14% |
Only some | 20% |
Hardly any | 9% |
None | 43% |
(If watched all, most or some of debate:) Regardless of which candidate you happen to
support, who do you think did the best job in the debate Tuesday night?
Alan Keyes | 40% |
George W. Bush | 34% |
John McCain | 19% |
All equally | 3% |
Unsure | 4% |
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CALENDAR |
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See how quickly the primary and caucus season will take off with this calendar.
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HISTORY |
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If you have a Flash-capable browser, take a look at the history of key events during the primary season.
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RACES |
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WHO'S IN-WHO'S OUT |
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Who is running, who isn't running and who has already dropped out? Check out our tally sheet.
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FOLLOW THE MONEY |
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How much money have the candidates raised? Here are their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission.
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Friday, February 18, 2000
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