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Poll: Bush, Gore hold substantial leads in California

Bush leads McCain by two-to-one margin

February 28, 2000
Web posted at: 11:54 a.m. EST (1654 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore currently have huge leads among likely California primary voters, according to a CNN/Time poll released Saturday.

Bush's lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona is greater than two-to-one, while Gore has better than a four-to-one advantage over Bill Bradley. The poll suggests, however, that the GOP might have trouble winning the grand prize in the fall -- California's 54 electoral votes -- if it nominates Bush over McCain.

This latest poll consists of interviews with 1,009 likely California primary voters, including 418 registered Republicans who are likely to vote in the March 7 primary, and 467 Democrats who are also likely to vote in the primary. The poll was conducted February 24-25, 2000.

Bush is tremendously unpopular outside of the Republican ranks in the Golden State. McCain's favorable rating, however, is just as high among registered Democrats who plan to vote in the March 7 primary as among registered Republicans.

And looking ahead to the fall match-ups, a majority of likely primary voters would pick Gore over Bush, while Gore manages no better than a statistical tie against McCain.

It should be noted that only likely primary voters were interviewed, and the number of voters in the general election will be much larger. This is at best an early indication of the November results.

Bush's solid lead over McCain is based on a number of factors: experience, leadership, and electability. Bush has also convinced likely GOP primary voters that he would do a better job of reforming the government than McCain. And, a third of all GOP primary voters say that McCain is not conservative enough, while just 15 percent say that about Bush.

Has Bush's reputation in the Golden State been tarnished by his support from religious right leaders such as Pat Robertson? Not really -- only 17 percent of likely GOP primary voters say that Bush is too conservative, and only 19 percent say he is too tied to the religious right.

Asked of registered Republicans likely to vote in the March 7 primary: As you may know, when you vote in the March presidential primary, you will be given a ballot that includes all the candidates' names on it, including Alan Keyes, George W. Bush, and John McCain -- the Republican candidates. Which of the candidates will you vote for?

Bush
48%
McCain
23%
Keyes
6%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of registered Democrats likely to vote in the March 7 primary: As you may know, when you vote in the March presidential primary, you will be given a ballot that includes all the candidates' names on it, including Al Gore and Bill Bradley -- the Democratic candidates. Which of the candidates will you vote for?

Gore
56%
Bradley
12%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of registered Republicans likely to vote in the primary: I'm going to read you the names of some people in the news today. Please tell me whether you have generally favorable or unfavorable impressions of each, or whether you are not familiar enough to say one way of the other.

 
Bush
McCain
Favorable
80%
63%
Unfavorable
15%
23%
Unsure
5%
14%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of registered Republicans and registered Democrats likely to vote in the primary:
I'm going to read you the names of some people in the news today. Please tell me whether you have generally favorable or unfavorable impressions of each, or whether you are not familiar enough to say one way of the other.

 
Registered Republicans
Registered Democrats
Bush
80%
29%
McCain
63%
60%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Suppose the election for president in the Year 2000 was being held today, and you had to choose between Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat, and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican. Or, you had to choose between Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, or Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat. For whom would you vote?

Gore
54%
Bush
41%
----------------
McCain
47%
Gore
46%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of likely Republican primary voters: Please tell me whether you think each of the following applies or does not apply to George W. Bush and John McCain.

 
Bush
McCain
Has enough experience
81%
61%
Strong leader
74%
62%
Can win in November
72%
56%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of registered Republicans likely to vote in the primary: Which candidate -- Bush or McCain -- do you think would do a better job of reforming the government in Washington?

Bush
51%
McCain
34%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of Republicans likely to vote in the primary: In your view, are George W. Bush and John McCain conservative, not conservative enough, or just right?

 
Bush
McCain
Not conservative enough
15%
32%
Too conservative
17%
8%
About right
61%
48%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of likely Republican primary voters: Do you think George W, Bush is too tied to the religious right, or don't feel that way?

Yes
19%
No
69%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

 
ELECTION 2000


CALENDAR
See how quickly the primary and caucus season will take off with this calendar.


VIDEO
Watch selected policy speeches and campaign commercials from the major presidential candidates.


WHAT'S AT STAKE


HISTORY
If you have a Flash-capable browser, take a look at the history of key events during the primary season.


CANDIDATE BIOS
Quick takes on the White House hopefuls.


RACES
If you need to know who's up in 1999 or 2000 and what seats are open launch this quick guide.


THE STATES
Who are your elected officials? What is the past presidential vote and number of electoral votes in your state? Find out with these state political and election facts.


POLLS
Check out the latest numbers or dig back into the poll archives.


WHO'S IN-WHO'S OUT
Who is running, who isn't running and who has already dropped out? Check out our tally sheet.


FOLLOW THE MONEY
How much money have the candidates raised? Here are their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission.


E-MAIL UPDATES
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COMMUNITY



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Monday, February 28, 2000


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