Poll: Bush remains ahead of Gore among likely voters

By Keating Holland/CNN

April 10, 2000
Web posted at: 4:37 p.m. EDT (2037 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush now holds a 50 percent to 41 percent lead over Vice President Al Gore among all likely voters if the presidential election were held today, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.

A week ago, Gore had closed to within one point among likely voters with Bush leading by a 46 percent to 45 percent margin.

Gore's ace in the hole has always been the belief that most voters prefer his policies, and the current poll indicates that is the case. But Bush's personal qualities trump that ace.

Sixty-two percent say that Bush has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have while only a bare majority say that about Gore. That explains why Gore is behind in a hypothetical match-up even though 56 percent of likely voters say that Gore's policies would move the country in the right direction. Just 51 percent say that about Bush's policies -- down significantly since last October.

Only one in five likely voters polled say that Gore's fund-raising activities were illegal, with another 30 percent saying they were unethical but not illegal, and 37 percent say they were not seriously wrong.

A majority say there has been nothing seriously wrong about Bush's fund-raising, with a quarter saying that he has done something unethical but not illegal. Just 3 percent say that Bush has done something illegal.

The poll was conducted April 7-9 and consisted of interviews with 1,006 adult Americans, including 502 likely voters. The sample error is plus or minus 5 percentage points, unless otherwise noted.

If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Al Gore, the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?

Gore	41%
Bush	50%

	Now	March 30-April 2
Bush	50%	46%
Gore	41%	45%

Now suppose that the Year 2000 presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore as the Democratic candidate, George W. Bush as the Republican candidate, and political commentator Pat Buchanan as the Reform Party candidate. Would you vote for: 1. Al Gore, the Democrat; 2. George Bush, the Republican. 3. Patrick Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate?

Bush	48%
Gore	42%
Buchanan	4%

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that George Bush and Al Gore has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have?

	Yes	No
Bush	62%	31%
Gore	51%	44%

Next, do you think the policies being proposed by each of the following presidential candidates would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

	Yes	No
Gore	56%	30%
Bush	51%	36%

Which of the following statements best describes your view of Al Gore's fund-raising activities: Al Gore has done something illegal; or he has done something unethical, but nothing illegal; or he has not done anything seriously wrong?

Illegal	19%
Unethical	30%
Not wrong	37%

Which of the following statements best describes your view of George W. Bush's fund-raising activities: George W. Bush has done something illegal, or he has done something unethical, but nothing illegal, or he has not done anything seriously wrong?

Illegal	3%
Unethical	23%
Not wrong	58%

The Elian Gonzalez case also has affected presidential politics as Gore's decision to support efforts to keep the 6-year-old in the U.S. has hurt him among Americans who think he should be returned to Cuba.

But the vice president's position has not gained him any support among supporters of the boy's U.S. relatives. Earlier this year, Gore held a 54 percent to 41 percent lead among all Americans who thought that Elian should be returned to Cuba. Bush and Gore are now essentially tied among that group.

Gore has also lost ground with Americans whose position he now agrees with. In February, 40 percent of those who felt Elian should stay in the U.S. said they planned to vote for Gore. After Gore came down on that side of the issue, however, his support dropped by five points among those who want Elian to remain in the U.S.

All Americans who support returning Elian to Cuba
	Now	February
Bush	46%	41%
Gore	45%	54%
Sampling error: +/-6 percentage points

All Americans who support keeping Elian in the U.S.
	Now	February
Bush	55%	55%
Gore	35%	40%
Sampling error: +/-6 percentage points