Poll: Bush holds slight lead over Gore

By Keating Holland/CNN

June 8, 2000
Web posted at: 4:18 p.m. EDT (2018 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- If the general election were held today, Republican Texas Gov. George W. Bush would win support from 48 percent of all likely voters, to 44 percent for Democratic Vice President Al Gore, and a majority of likely voters now say that they think Bush will win in November, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

Polling interviews were conducted June 6-7, 2000, with 1,059 adult Americans, including 528 likely voters.

Is it too early to count Al Gore out? Definitely -- but it is worth noting that currently only 50 percent of likely voters say they are likely to vote for him, -- compared to a slightly more robust 57 percent for Bush -- while nearly half say they are unlikely to vote for the vice president.

One reason why Gore has not gained any traction is that several key issues do not appear to be working in his favor. Most Americans approve of Bush's proposal to allow individuals to put a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into stocks and bonds, although senior citizens oppose this in large numbers, and the public thinks that Bush's plan is less risky than continuing to fund Social Security the way it is done now.

What would happen to Social Security if Bush were elected? Just 38 percent say the system would be less financially sound in a Bush Administration -- compared to 46 percent who say that would happen if Gore were elected.

Gore has also been unable to convince the public that the economy would get worse if Bush is elected.

And the gun issue seems to be working against Gore as well -- a majority say that too many new and restrictive gun laws would be passed if Gore became president.

With Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader in the race, Bush would have a similar lead among likely voters -- 46 percent for the Texas Governor to 41 percent for Gore, 6 percent for Nader and 2 percent for Buchanan.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL June 6-7

If Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republicans Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Bush	48%
Gore	44%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of likely voters: Suppose the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore as the Democratic candidate, George W. Bush as the Republican candidate, Pat Buchanan as the Reform Party candidate, and Ralph Nader as the Green Party candidate. Who would you vote for?

Bush	46%
Gore	41%
Nader	6%
Buchanan	2%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of likely voters: Regardless of who you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November?

	Now	March
Bush	55%	47%
Gore	34%	39%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of likely voters: If each of the following candidates were on the ballot for president next November, please say how likely it is you would vote for him.

	Bush	Gore
Very likely	43%	37%
Somewhat likely	14%	13%
Not likely	40%	47%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of likely voters: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?

	Now	January
Democratic	48%	42%
Republican	46%	48%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

George W. Bush has made a proposal that would allow people to put a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into personal retirement accounts that would be invested in private stocks or bonds. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

Favor	65%
Oppose	30%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

A proposal has been made that would allow people to put a portion of their Social Security taxes into personal retirement accounts that would be invested in private stocks and bonds. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

Under 50 years old	78%
50-64 years old	58%
65 and older	31%
Sampling error: +/-8% pts

Which is the greater risk: To continue funding Social Security the way it is done now, or to change the system to allow people to put a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into accounts that would be invested in the stock market?

No change to Social Security	51%
Allow private investments	42%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Thinking about the long-term condition of the Social Security system, if people were allowed to put a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into accounts that would be invested in the stock market, would this strengthen or weaken the ability to pay benefits to retirees 25 years from now?

	Today	25 Years From Now
Yes	47%	53%
No	35%	30%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Would the Social Security system get worse if Al Gore or George W. Bush is elected president?

	Yes	No
Gore is elected	46%	44%
Bush is elected	38%	53%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Would the economy get worse if Al Gore or George W. Bush is elected president?

	Yes	No
Bush is elected	39%	54%
Gore is elected	35%	57%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

If Al Gore is elected president, is it likely there would then be more restrictive gun laws?

Yes	54%
No	37%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts