Poll: Bush leads Gore with GOP convention set to begin
By Keating Holland/CNN
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- With the convention season about to begin, issues are starting to become more important to American voters. Although conventional wisdom says that an issues-oriented campaign would be good news for Democratic presidential hopeful Al Gore, he trails the newly-minted Bush/Cheney ticket by a significant amount.
One reason is that Bush is seen as better than Gore at handling the economy, international affairs, national defense, the gun issue, the budget surplus, and taxes.
The public also thinks that the presumptive Republican nominee is more likely to manage the government effectively, although those surveyed are split on which candidate agrees with them more on the issues.
Bush now holds a 11 point lead over Gore, 50 percent to 39 percent, in a four-way race, with Green Party presidential hopeful Ralph Nader garnering 4 percent and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan at just 1 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, the Texas governor holds an even bigger 54 percent to 40 percent lead over the vice president. Bush's coattails, however, may not be very long. Forty-seven percent of likely voters plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, while 47 percent plan to vote for the GOP congressional candidate.
The poll consisted of interviews with 1,035 adult Americans, including 632 likely voters. It was conducted on July 25-26, after the official announcement that Bush had picked former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney as his running mate.
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
Suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore as the Democratic candidate, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan as the Reform Party candidate, and Ralph Nader and Winona Laduke as the Green Party candidates.
Choice for president
Bush 50 %
Gore 39
Nader 4
Buchanan 1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
If Al Gore was the Democratic Party candidate and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were the Republican Party candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for?
Bush 54%
Gore 40
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Are candidates' personal qualities are more important than issues?
Now 39%
March 50
January 51
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Al Gore or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues:
Bush Gore
Defense 58% 31%
Taxes 51 36
World affairs 50 36
Budget surplus 49 38
Economy 47 40
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each of the following applies to Al Gore or more to George W. Bush.
Agrees with you more on issues you care about
Bush 45%
Gore 42
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
Better able to manage the government effectively
Bush 49%
Gore 37
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
Bush's support in the current poll is more than skin-deep. Nearly half of those surveyed say they are very likely to vote for the Texas governor, while only 37 percent said they were not likely at all to do so. About half said they are not likely to vote for Gore; only about a third are very likely to vote for him. It's not that they dislike
Gore -- a majority of Americans have a favorable opinion of him -- but voters
are split right down the middle on whether Gore has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.
Before Bush starts addressing invitations to his inauguration, however, he should bear in mind what happened to his father during the 1988 presidential campaign. Just like Gore, the public was evenly split over whether then-Vice President George Bush had the right qualities to be president -- right up until the 1988 GOP convention, when Bush the elder convinced the public that he was presidential material.
Gore has the same problem Bush's father did in 1988 -- Americans don't consider him a strong and decisive leader. The 1988 convention changed that perception for Bush, we won't know if Gore can perform the same makeover until after the Democratic convention.
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
If the election were held today, would you be likely to vote for Bush?
Very likely 48 percent
Somewhat likely 12
Not likely 37
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
If the election were held today, would you be likely to vote for Gore?
Very likely 35%
Somewhat likely 11
Not likely 40
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Does Al Gore have personal qualities a president should have?
Yes 49%
No 49
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Does George W. Bush personal qualities a president should have?
Yes 65%
No 31
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each of the following applies to Al Gore or more to George W. Bush.
Strong and Decisive Leader?
Bush 54%
Gore 32
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
Gore continues to trail Bush despite the fact that the public gives the economy
its highest rating since 1992. Three-quarters give the economy a positive rating, with a quarter saying the economy is excellent and 48 percent saying its in good shape. Yet, despite conventional wisdom that the public rewards the party in power during good economic times, 47 percent say that Bush would do a better job handling the economy than Gore, while only 40 percent prefer Gore.
Just as damaging for Gore's prospects, only 36 percent say that Gore would be better at handling international affairs than Bush, despite the Texas governor's limited
experience with other countries and Gore's extensive world contacts as vice president.
Previous Democratic candidates have had a substantial advantage over their GOP rivals on issues like Social Security, health care, education, and jobs, but Gore has statistically insignificant leads over Bush on each of those issues. Gore does score better than Bush on Medicare and the environment. One caution for Bush: the number of Americans who approve of the way he is handling his job as governor of Texas has dropped 14 points since last fall, possibly due to concerns about capital punishment and the Texas state budget.
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Who would do a better job handling the economy?
Bush 47%
Gore 40
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Who would do a better job handling world affairs?
Bush 50%
Gore 36
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Who would do a better job handling the following?
Gore Bush
Health care 47% 41%
Social Security 45 43
Education 45 43
Job opportunities 44 40
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
Who would do a better job handling the following?
Gore Bush
Environment 58% 30%
Medicare 49 39
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
How has George W. Bush handled his job as governor of Texas?
Now 1999
Approve 54% 68%
Disapprove 18 10
Unsure 28 22
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
July 25-26
How has Al Gore handled his job as vice president?
Now 1999
Approve 61% 61%
Disapprove 29 30
Unsure 10 9
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
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