Poll: Convention 'bounce' pulls Gore even with Bush

By Keating Holland/CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Al Gore has gained significant support as a result of the Democratic convention and is now statistically tied with George W. Bush among likely voters on the strength of an eight-point convention bounce, according to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll.

Gore's gains are due in part to convincing voters that he has the necessary personal qualities to be president -- particularly by convincing the public he is more compassionate than Bush and has a better vision for the future. In fact, Gore used his convention to change his public image in the same way that Bush's father did in 1988.

There is also evidence that Gore has begun to step out of Clinton's shadow. Most notably, his acceptance speech was better received than Clinton's valedictory on Monday night.

Gore made his most notable gains on issues, perhaps because his acceptance speech placed such emphasis on them. Of those surveyed, 63 percent say Gore's policies would move the country in the right direction, while 55 percent say the same about Bush -- at a moment when issues have become more important than personal qualities to voters.

	VIDEO
CNN's John King reports on Vice President Al Gore's campaign strategy in the first week after the Democratic National Convention (August 20) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)

For the first time, a majority of the public thinks Gore agrees with them on more issues than Bush does, and Americans think he would do a better job than Bush on issues ranging from the economy and education to campaign finance reform, abortion, and the budget surplus. Gore's clearest advantage is now on four issues -- health care, Medicare, Social Security, and prescription drug coverage for seniors -- that he stressed in his issue-laden acceptance speech.

The big question, which can be answered only by future polls, is how long the bounce will last. Post-convention polls can be high points for candidates because the public has spent a week hearing nothing but kind words for one party and silence from the opposition. In 1984, Democratic nominee Walter Mondale closed to within two points of Ronald Reagan after his party gathering in San Francisco, but was soundly defeated in November.

Gore's bounce was just a bit higher than average, and about twice as high as the bounce Bush received after this year's Republican convention in Philadelphia. But with the focus now shifting back to both candidates -- and a large GOP ad campaign about to start in earnest -- the question is whether Gore can sustain his bounce.

On the one hand, there is strong evidence that bounces last quite a bit longer for the candidate whose convention comes last, as Democratic gathering did this year. On the other hand, even after the successful Democratic convention, a small plurality of those polled continue to believe Bush would be a stronger leader than Gore.

The vice president's campaign may also be concerned that most of his bounce came among women. Since many women have supported Bush in the past, the GOP may be able to draw some of them back as the aftereffects of the convention fade. Since men have never been in the Gore camp, the Democratic nominee may have a tougher time bringing them around. The gender gap will continue to be a focus of attention as the campaign moves into the final rounds.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted August 18-19, 2000, consisted of interviews with 1,043 adult Americans, including 697 likely voters.

Suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore and Joe Lieberman as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster as the Reform Party candidates, and Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke as the Green Party candidates. Who would you vote for?

           Now    Aug. 11-12


Gore        47%        39%

Bush        46         55

Nader        3          2

Buchanan     2          *

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

If Al Gore and Joe Lieberman were the Democratic Party's candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were the Republican Party's candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for?

            Now    Aug. 11-12


Gore        49%       40%

Bush        49        56

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Favorable Opinion of Candidates

              Now     August 4-5


Gore          64%        52%

Bush          60         67

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Al Gore or George W. Bush.

Who cares more about the needs of people like you?

            Now     August 4-5


Gore         51%        39%

Bush         35         49

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who is a stronger leader?

             Now     August 4-5


Bush         46%        60%

Gore         42         28

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who has a vision for the country's future?

             Now     August 4-5


Gore         46%       32%

Bush         37        53

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who agrees with you more on issues you care about?

              Now     August 4-5


Gore          50%         40%

Bush          40          49

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Policies would move country in right direction?

           Yes     No


Gore        63%    31%

Bush        55     36

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Al Gore or George W. Bush would better handle the following issues.

                    Gore      Bush


Prescription drugs   59%      31%

Health care          57       33

Medicare             56       34

Social Security      53       38

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Aside from the bounce, how did the Democratic convention stack up this year? Of those polled, 43 percent said the convention made them more likely to vote for Gore, while just 28 percent said they were less likely to do so based on what they had read or heard about last week's gathering in Los Angeles. That's almost the same as the public's reaction to the Republican convention two weeks ago.

But while the Democratic conclave was a net plus for Gore, it didn't match the effect that the 1992 convention had for Bill Clinton, or even the 1988 convention for Michael Dukakis. On the other hand, it swayed about as many people as the GOP convention 12 years ago for then-Vice President George Bush -- yet another eerie parallel between the 1988 campaign and this one.

Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman is no Al Gore -- three-quarters of those polled said that Clinton's choice of Gore made them more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket in 1992, while only 54 percent say that about the choice of Lieberman today. However, Lieberman is definitely a net advantage for the ticket this year and is slightly better viewed than Dick Cheney.

Only one-third of those surveyed said the Democrats spent too much time criticizing Republicans at their convention. Gore's acceptance speech got virtually the same reaction as George W. Bush's address did two weeks ago, but received higher marks than Clinton did on Monday night -- significant for someone trying to step out of his boss' shadow.

Effect of Democratic convention on your vote:

More likely for Gore    43%

Less likely for Gore    28

No difference           19

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Convention made you more likely to vote for that party's ticket:

Democratic     43%

Republican     44

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Democratic convention made you more likely to vote for...

Clinton in 1992       60%

Dukakis in 1988       56

Mondale in 1984       45

Gore in 2000          43

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Effect of running mate choice Joe Lieberman on your vote:

More likely for Gore    54%         

Less likely for Gore    22          

No difference           19        

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Running mate choice made you more likely to vote Democratic:

Gore in 1992       73%

Lieberman in 2000  54

Bentsen in 1988    48

Ferraro in 1984    26

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Acceptance speeches:

                 Gore     Bush


Excellent/good    52%       51%

Just okay         18        17

Poor/terrible      6         4

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Rating the speeches at the Democratic convention:

                 Gore    Clinton


Excellent/good    52%       44%

Just okay         18        16

Poor/terrible      6        13

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

At this week's convention, did the Democrats spend too much time criticizing the Republicans?

Yes        34%

No         47

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Let's look at issues in greater detail. When asked whether Gore or Bush would be better able to handle a list of issues, the number who picked Gore has grown by roughly 10 points on almost every issue -- with guns, abortion, and campaign finance reform the notable exceptions. A majority now think Gore would do a better job on prescription drugs, health care, Medicare, Social Security, education and the economy and pluralities think he would do a better job on every other issue in the list except for national defense.

Who can better handle health care?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              57%      43%

Bush              33       46

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle Medicare?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              56%      42%

Bush              34       47

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle Social Security?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              53%      38%

Bush              38       52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle the economy?

                 Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              50%      39%

Bush              40       52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle education?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              51%      41%

Bush              39       50

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle taxes?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              47%      35%

Bush              43       54

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle the gun issue

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              45%      42%

Bush              39       50%

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle abortion?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              48%      43%

Bush              36       43

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle world affairs?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              47%      36%

Bush              43       50

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle the budget surplus?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              48%      38%

Bush              41       51

Sampling error: +/-3% pts 

Who can better handle national defense?

                  Now    Aug. 4-5


Gore              38%      29%

Bush              54       62

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle campaign finance reform?

                  Now     March


Gore              48%      43%

Bush              34       38

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Who can better handle prescription drugs for seniors?

Gore              59%

Bush              31

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

And then there's Monica. Will the fact that a grand jury is investigating whether to indict Bill Clinton after he leaves office affect the November election? Probably not.

Twenty-three percent of those polled say that the grand jury will make them less likely to vote for Gore, while 22 percent say that the grand jury will make them more likely to do so. Most Americans say it won't affect their vote at all. A majority believe that Clinton should not be charged with a crime when he leaves office, and two-thirds think the matter should be dropped completely.

As you may know, the independent counsel in the Monica Lewinsky case is assembling a grand jury to decide whether or not to charge Bill Clinton with a crime once he leaves office. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Al Gore in November?

More likely for Gore    22%

Less likely for Gore    23

No effect               53

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Additionally, do you think Bill Clinton should or should not be charged in a court of law with a crime for these matters, after he leaves office?

Yes     41%

No      54

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Do you feel further action against Clinton is needed?

Yes      30%

No       67

Sampling error: +/-3% pts