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latimes.com: Democrats do the math and see Senate in reach

latimes.comWASHINGTON (Los Angeles Times) -- Sen. William V. Roth Jr. would seem politically unbeatable: He is chairman of a powerful Senate committee, is known to just about everyone in his tiny home state of Delaware and has sky-high approval ratings among voters.

But the five-term Republican is in a dogfight as he seeks reelection, challenged by another popular Delaware politician, Democratic Gov. Thomas R. Carper.

That places Roth on the front lines of an increasingly competitive battle for control of the Senate -- a battleground that for most of this election year has been largely eclipsed by the presidential race and the bruising fight for control of the House. But as election day nears, a surprisingly large number of Senate seats are competitive, and Democrats believe that their chances of capturing the majority -- or at least whittling the GOP's 54-46 advantage -- are brighter than they were a year ago.

The outcome hinges on a lively and diverse array of contests around the country -- from First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton's high-profile campaign in New York to less well-known but equally intense face-offs in Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and Montana.

The races are shaped to some degree by issues peculiar to each state -- the 79-year-old Roth may see his age work against him, for example. But there are also powerful political crosscurrents buffeting every competitive contest.

Working for the Republican majority is the strong economy that makes it harder to beat incumbents. "Throw the bums out" is hardly an effective rallying cry when so many voters view the economy as on the right track.

But the prevailing policy agenda is working for the Democrats. The issues dominating campaign debates are ones the public tends to associate with Democrats -- health care, education and Social Security among them.

In this environment, one dynamic is clear: If Democrats have any chance of narrowing or erasing the GOP Senate majority, vulnerable GOP incumbents such as Roth are must-beat targets.

Most senators seeking reelection -- including California Democrat Dianne Feinstein -- are expected to score easy victories. But there are about 14 races -- five seats now held by Democrats, nine by Republicans -- in which the result is in doubt, according to the latest analysis by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Fueling Democratic optimism are key strategic and tactical shifts that Republican candidates have made in many of these tight races.

Sen. John Ashcroft (R-Mo.), who touted big tax cuts and social issues of interest to religious conservatives while flirting with a presidential run, has tacked more to the center as he seeks reelection. His recent ads spotlight his support for preserving Social Security revenue from other government uses and for GOP bills that would provide drug benefits for Medicare beneficiaries and new rights for managed health care patients.

The latest ad for GOP Sen. Conrad R. Burns of Montana features his daughter, a doctor, touting her father's record on health care.

"Most of our Republican incumbents are talking about prescription drugs and Social Security," said Stuart Roy, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Conversely, hardly any Senate Republicans are campaigning on GOP presidential nominee George W. Bush's proposed $1.3-trillion tax cut. Instead, many are promoting the targeted tax cuts that President Clinton has thwarted, such as reducing the taxes for married couples and eliminating the estate tax.

Some Republicans rarely mention party affiliation on their billboards, campaign ads and Web sites. Roth's campaign materials, for example, describe him as "Independent. Respected. A leader for Delaware."

No one is moving more deliberately to distance himself from the GOP than Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a moderate Republican from Rhode Island seeking election to a full term after being appointed to succeed his late father, Sen. John H. Chafee. And the party itself has abetted Chafee's efforts -- the National Republican Senatorial Committee has run television ads that boast of his votes for Democratic-backed bills on managed health care and prescription drug benefits.

"He voted against his own party for a real patients' bill of rights and a prescription drug benefit that gives seniors the drugs they need at a price they can afford," the ad said.

But even as Democrats have benefited from the issues agenda, their prospects in some states have suffered because of a lack of high-profile candidates or because of divisive primaries. Both these factors have come into play in Minnesota, putting in jeopardy the party's chances of unseating Sen. Rod Grams, a Republican first elected six years ago.

Grams once was seen as the GOP's most vulnerable incumbent, in part because his voting record is more conservative than most Minnesotans. But he got a big break when former Democratic Rep. Tim Penny decided not to run against him, setting up a bitter five-way primary among lesser-known Democrats that finally was settled earlier this month. Grams still may lose, but his reelection chances have improved.

Several other vulnerable Republicans have emerged stronger than expected thanks to skillful campaigning or the fund-raising edge that incumbency usually brings.

Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has swamped his Democratic opponent, Rep. Ron Klink, on the fund-raising front and is now favored to win. Sen. Spencer Abraham of Michigan dominated the state's airwaves with campaign ads this summer and has opened a lead in the polls over the Democratic nominee, Rep. Debbie Stabenow.

But in Delaware, the race between Roth and Carper has evolved into a dogfight between two strong politicians.

Roth has stressed his clout as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee -- a position that has made him practically a household name (the popular Roth IRAs for retirement savings are named for him) and put him at the center of legislative debates on tax cuts, Medicare benefits and China trade policy.

"No newly elected senator will have the experience, power or leadership position that Bill Roth has to get things done," one radio ad says. "Sen. Bill Roth's seniority is just too important for Delaware to lose," declares another.

The flip side of Roth's seniority is his age. While Carper, 53, has not explicitly made age an issue, it is the subtext of much of his campaign message. "Elections are in part about the past, but they are largely about the future," he said. "Voters have to decide who's best prepared to help the state and nation into the 21st century."

Carper also has pointed out that, under Senate term-limit rules, Roth will lose the Finance Committee chairmanship in 2002. And the Democrat is trying to shift the focus to how Roth has used -- or not used -- his power. While bills to provide a Medicare benefit for the costs of prescription drugs founder in Congress, Carper noted that as governor he signed a law providing drug assistance to the elderly.

"While the politicians in Washington talk about health care, Tom Carper has gotten things done," one of his ads says.

Roth's clout and campaign cash may yet overpower Carper: A few months ago, the Democrat had a lead of more than 10 percentage points in some polls. The margin has dramatically narrowed since then, and the latest University of Delaware poll found the two neck and neck.

"There is no doubt the voters of Delaware really love Bill Roth," said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent political analyst of congressional elections. "It's not that they don't know him. It's a question of whether they think it's time to give him a gold watch and have someone else for the future."

Ironically, a victory by the Democratic presidential ticket could deal a blow to the party's Senate numbers. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) is heavily favored to win reelection in his state, even as he campaigns for vice president. If he wins both offices, Connecticut's GOP governor would chose his successor, presumably a Republican.

Some Connecticut Democrats are urging Lieberman to allow the party to replace him on the Senate ballot. So far he has refused, but he has until late October to change his mind.

 
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THE STATES
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Tuesday, September 26, 2000


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