Tracking poll: Bush pulls away from Gore
By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland
WASHINGTON (CNN) - GOP presidential candidate Gov. George W. Bush has regained his lead over rival Democratic candidate, Vice President Al Gore, according to Saturday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.
A second poll taken by CNN and Time Magazine after the candidates' debate on Wednesday suggests that Gore may have missed a chance in that face-off to gain any ground on his rival.
The CNN/Time poll shows Bush with a 48 percent to 43 percent edge over Gore, and the CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll indicates that Bush leads Gore by 48 percent to 44 percent.
Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader and Reform Party candidate Patrick Buchanan both continued to founder in the single digits.
Friday's poll showed the two major party candidates in a statistical tie at 45 percent. Nader had 3 percent and Buchanan had 0 percent. The polls all had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Debate data
All interviews in the CNN/Time poll were done after
Wednesday night's debate, while about a third of the interviews in the tracking poll were conducted before the debate.
As a result, the CNN/Time poll is a better indicator of the debate's effect on the voting public and a slightly more up-to-date estimate of the voters' current frames of mind.
But both polls agree that Bush now has a narrow advantage over Gore, bearing in mind that neither candidate has been able to hold onto a lead for more than a few days.
Bush's test
The real test for Bush is whether he can turn his narrow advantage into a permanent lead, and that can't be determined until next week.
The polls was conducted from interviews with 1,218 adult Americans, including 603 likely voters, from October 12 through 13.
CNN will be releasing the results of its tracking polls every day until the November 7 elections. The polls monitor public opinion of the presidential race over intervals of two to three days.
CNN/TIME POLL
October 12-13
Likely voters' choice for president
Bush | 48% |
Gore | 43 |
Nader | 4 |
Buchanan | * |
Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP TRACKING POLL
October 11-13
Likely voters' choice for president
Bush | 48% |
Gore | 44 |
Nader | 2 |
Buchanan | 1 |
Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
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