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Warning: It may not end by Monday

(TIME.com) -- The Florida Supreme Court has spoken. Can we all go home now?

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Do you think the so-called dimpled ballots should be counted?

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Politics and the Supreme Court
 

Not so fast.

Tuesday night, the court ruled that the results of the various hand recounts must be included in Florida's overall vote tally. The counties currently conducting recounts (Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade) have until Sunday night at 5 or Monday morning at 9 to enter their new results with the secretary of state's office.

And while the ruling was a victory for Al Gore, this is hardly the end of the story. Embedded in the ongoing mathematics of the manual recounts is the sticky issue of the now-famous "dimpled chad." Admittedly, the vocabulary of this morass has reached positively absurd levels. But stick with us here, because it's the concave marks of the dimpled chad that could ultimately decide this prolonged presidential battle.

No one seems to be able to decide what, if any, significance the dimpled chads carry. Do they or do they not signify voter intent?

The Florida high court made no definitive ruling on whether these marks were admissible, but they did refer favorably to a 1990 ruling in which the Illinois Supreme Court stated that an indented ballot could, in some cases, be perceived as an indication of "voter intent." With a nod to the existing Florida law, however, the court also bowed to the ultimate authority of the state legislature when it comes to the dimpled chads: "We leave that matter to the sound discretion of the body best equipped to address it -- the legislature."

Outside the courtrooms, the counties in question are unable to reach a consensus. In Miami-Dade County, where election workers are counting by far the largest number of ballots, the dimpled (or pregnant) chads are already being counted as votes. In Palm Beach and Broward counties, election workers are setting aside the dimpled ballots into "questionable" piles, where they await further deliberations. And the final arbiter will be the courts: Wednesday, Palm Beach Democrats will go to court to try to force election officials to accept broader interpretations of "intent to vote" with regard to the dimpled chads.

Analysts predict that Gore can capture the necessary votes to win Florida only if the dimpled chads are permitted. But even if Gore does take the lead with the help of the dimpled chad, the uncertainty surrounding admissibility leads to a new maze of political and legal possibilities:

Scenario One: The Bush camp takes its case directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, bypassing the usual stop before the federal appeals bench. There have been reports that the Bush campaign was preparing a case for the nation's top justices just in case the Florida court ruled against them. The U.S. Supreme Court would then have to decide if it felt the case was within its jurisdiction.

Scenario Two: Gore wins the Florida tally including the "dimpled chad" vote, and Bush contests the outcome in court, claiming there was no "reasonable standard" for the vote count. The governor may have grounds for this argument, since one county views the pregnant chads as votes, while the others are setting aside dimpled ballots for review. If the Bush team can come up with a constitutional claim in their case, they could take their argument to federal court -- even the U.S. Supreme Court, again assuming the justices are interested in hearing the case, which, because it is a state matter, they may be reluctant to do.

Scenario Three: Gore wins, but when the GOP-controlled Florida state legislature meets to appoint their slate of electors, they turn their backs on the count and decry the inclusion of the dimpled ballots as a gross misinterpretation of their own legislation. They ignore the dimpled chad-enhanced vote (remember, the Florida Supreme Court as much as handed them the right to do just that) and appoint their own slate of (Republican) electors. The legislature could also cave to the pressure of a deadlock and appoint two slates of electors, one Democrat and one Republican, and leave it up to Congress to make the decision as to which slate will represent Florida in the Electoral College vote.

Scenario Four: Either Bush or Gore steps aside, acknowledging the will of the American people for a swift and absolute resolution to the longest election night in history. The country breathes a sigh of relief and rallies round the president-elect.

Ah, well. We can dream, can't we?

Copyright © 2000 Time Inc.


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Wednesday, November 22, 2000


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