La Niña is dying. Or is it?

Satellite maps of the Pacific Ocean show fluctuations in water temperature over the last 3 years, with a slight warming trend over the last few months
MESSAGE BOARD Global climate    VIDEO CNN's Natalie Pawelski looks at when scientists think La Nina may dissipate. Real 28K 80K Windows Media 28K 80K

May 9, 2000
Web posted at: 3:47 PM EDT (1947 GMT)

By Environmental Correspondent Natalie Pawelski

(CNN) -- La Niña, the weather system blamed for unleashing floods, droughts and hurricanes in different parts of the world, is running out of steam, according to NASA scientists.

"La Niña as we know it is not over at the present time. But we do expect it to decay and die out towards the summertime," said Tony Busalacchi, a space agency oceanographer.

The La Niña weather system follows its more famous brother, El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, like those that hit in 1997.

La Niña is the opposite, featuring a band of cold ocean temperatures. But satellite data from NASA shows parts of the Pacific warming up again.

The question remains how long will it take for the world's weather to return to El Niño conditions.

"Historically, techniques for forecasting El Niño and La Niña have had a very difficult time predicting things through the spring months. I think it's maybe a little bit early to kiss it (La Niña) off or say goodbye to it this year," said Vern Kousky, a NOAA meteorologist.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said La Niña could take could up to half a year to die. NASA's best guess is closer to three months.

The difference could be important for hurricane season, which lasts until autumn. La Niña makes it more likely that hurricanes will reach landfall.

La Niña can steer the tracks of tropical storms toward landfall by affecting the jet stream

"Everybody should keep their eyes focused on the tropical storm system," Kousky said.

"Expect hurricane season to be slightly above normal, but not as strong as last year. And then with the effects of La Niña dying out into the second half of the hurricane season," Busalacchi said.

The current La Niña -- the most severe in 50 years -- turns two this summer. But La Niña cycles can last for up to three years.

La Niña leaves states high and dry
April 24, 2000
La Niña spawns extreme weather
April 20, 2000
La Niña goes with the stream flow
January 13, 2000
La Niña keeps hanging around
August 10, 1999

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