Brace yourselves: It's going to be a bumpy hurricane season

Hurricane Floyd caused massive overflow of the Waccamaw River in North Carolina last September

May 10, 2000
Web posted at: 1:43 p.m. EDT (1743 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Residents along America's East and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean can expect another busy hurricane season, with an above average number of storms predicted, national forecasters said Wednesday.

The persistence of a La Nina weather pattern is mostly to blame, said D. James Baker of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

La Nina, characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific region, creates hurricanes that tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than normal, Baker said. La Nina can have a global impact.

Baker and other storm authorities announced their predictions in advance of the hurricane season, which officially starts June 1.

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James Lee Witt, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, also used the annual forecast as a platform to remind people of the importance of preparation in advance of a storm.

Scientists say an above average hurricane season consists of 11 or more tropical storms, with seven or more reaching hurricane intensity. Usually three or more turn into major storms, which pack winds of more than 110 miles an hour.

Last year's season was marked by Hurricane Floyd, which struck along the Middle Atlantic Coast. Fifty-six people died as a result of the storm, the highest death toll since Hurricane Agnes struck in 1972, Baker said.

Witt said FEMA, which provides disaster relief, is working to promote partnerships with businesses and communities to cut down on the number of hurricane-related deaths. By spending just a few thousand dollars on home maintenance, homeowners can avoid serious property losses in a storm, he said.

Forecasters say better satellites and technology have improved their ability to predict a storm's path. Today, they can forecast a hurricane's path within about a 100-mile margin, and they hope to reduce that margin to 80 miles in the future.

Hurricane scientists have discovered a surprising trend over the past 30 years, said Max Mayfield, the new director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

More people are dying because of inland flooding than along the coast, Mayfield said. He attributed the trend to complacency: People assume they face no danger because they're miles away from the shore.

For example, he said, people who try to drive through large standing bodies of water are asking for trouble.

"We keep making the same mistakes over and over again," Mayfield said.

Nevertheless, he said, the greatest potential for human loss remains along the coastline, which is vulnerable to the violence of surging storm water.

Forecasters will issue a revised hurricane forecast in August. The season ends November 30.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Hurricane satellite launched ahead of storm season
May 3, 2000
Hurricane Floyd follow-up: Thousands still homeless
January 20, 2000
NASA data reveals ecological impact from Hurricane Floyd
November 5, 1999
Floyd victims getting temporary shelter
September 23, 1999
Floyd's legacy: Record losses in North Carolina
September 22, 1999
Some N.C. flood victims offered temporary homes
September 21, 1999
Some water-logged areas to get more rain
September 20, 1999

FEMA -- Project Impact
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National Hurricane Center
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