Can Yugoslavia's 'sick society' heal?

By Luke Allnutt, Assistant Editor, Transitions Online

PRAGUE, Czech Republic -- The real tragedy of the break-up of Yugoslavia and the bloody civil wars that followed was that they prevented the country being what it could have been.

In 1989, many pundits predicted that Yugoslavia would be one of the success stories of post-communism: the country had one of the highest standards of living in the communist world, it was virtually independent from the Soviet Union and, unlike some of its neighbours, its citizens had plenty of opportunity to travel.

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Put simply, its society was a lot more open. But then those who thought of Yugoslavia as a nice alternative to Italy for a holiday began hearing about places like Srebrenica and Sarajevo -- and for all the wrong reasons.

For once, with Slobodan Milosevic stepping down from the presidency amid the country's democratic awakening, the news is good.

Just like 1989's revolutions across Eastern Europe, recent events in Yugoslavia have shown that in the face of a repressive regime 'people power' can triumph.

But there are more pertinent parallels with post-communist Eastern Europe -- ones that those responsible for getting Yugoslavia back on its feet will ignore at their peril.

A decade of transition in Eastern Europe has shown that unlike revolution, democracy does not happen overnight.

Nominally the political system may change, a country may even have a constitution on a democratic par with the West, but more often than not the same corrupt power networks still exist and the usual suspects continue to fleece the country for all it is worth.

Across Eastern Europe, crony capitalism has often replaced communism as high-ranking members of the former nomenclature have successfully converted their social capital into material wealth.

Even where the intention has been honourable, reformed communist parties have had a dismal track record with market economics.

This is what Yugoslavia, with many of its socialist structures still intact, wants to avoid.

Understandably, the euphoric new President Vojislav Kostunica said: "We lived in a system without democracy. It exists now." It does not. Yugoslavia is a 'sick' society.

For the last 10 years of his rule Milosevic picked at Yugoslavia's wounds.

The former president removed 'disobedient' judges and dissident academics and ruthlessly persecuted independent media.

It is estimated that in the last decade, 400,000 of Yugoslavia's brightest and best have left the country. Apathy and autism have kept its society in a dangerous stupor.

With Milosevic's meddling, notions of collective responsibility and civic pride have been eroded.

One Serbian political theorist recently described Yugoslavia as "economically destroyed, politically strangulated, and culturally contaminated."

Kostunica is the man charged with mopping up this huge mess, but is he the right man for such a huge task?

Untainted by corruption, his political record has been exemplary but his nationalism, as benign as it may be, may prove a hindrance to a necessary internal re-appraisal of Yugoslavia's recent history.

For Yugoslav democracy to mature, the country and Serbian people need to come to terms with the war crimes and atrocities committed in their name over the past decade.

In this respect it is unlikely that Kostunica's inauguration will be an epiphany for most Serbs.

In the past the new president has condemned the crimes of Serbian forces but has blamed Milosevic's regime rather than discussing any notions of collective responsibility.

It will not help that the 19 political parties grouped around Kostunica are far from unified, with a strong history of non-cooperation.

The war-time spirit of fighting together in the face of adversity with Milosevic as the common foe will soon fade and old divisions and rivalries may come to the fore.

Regardless of the political will the problems, particularly the economic ones, are daunting. The banking system is practically ineffective and black market dealing is the norm -- Serbian agriculture is still based on a communist model.

Lifting sanctions may provide some respite, but it will just be the tip of the iceberg. Kostunica has admitted he is no expert although he has the backing of some influential and liberal economists.

Kostunica also has to deal with the huge network of corrupt mini-fiefdoms that Milosevic's henchmen have operated over the last decade.

Serbia, the main chunk of the federal Yugoslavia, is still run by a government of Milosevic's men and it controls over 100,000 policemen.

It is not quite clear the extent of Kostunica's presidential power as Milosevic tended to use extra-parliamentary methods of ruling.

And what will the new president do with those who, at the crucial time, changed sides and backed the opposition coalition? Will they expect similar privileges to those they received under the Milosevic regime? Will they expect a reward for aiding and abetting their new leader to power?

For many in positions of power, dumping Milosevic was motivated not by a genuine desire for the liberalisation of Yugoslavia but by notions of self-preservation from those who did not want to go down with a sinking ship.

Locked into all of this is what to do about Milosevic.

Kostunica has so far been sensible. By refusing to hand Milosevic over to The Hague and the war crimes tribunal he has very little time for, he has given the former president the get-out clause the West was so reluctant to give.

The new government has already expressed outrage that the United States may make the lifting of sanctions contingent on handing Milosevic over but it does not look like the opposition will let Milosevic get away with everything. A senior opposition figure has said that the former president could face charges for election rigging.

But if Milosevic is Yugoslavia's virus, then Kosovo is its festering sore.

The new president has said that he wants to return Kosovo to Yugoslav sovereignty, but does Kostunica even represent Kosovo?

Only around 5 percent of the electorate, a tiny proportion of who were ethnic Albanians, cast their vote in the disputed province.

The same goes for Montenegro where most boycotted the vote.

It is not clear yet exactly how the opposition will seek to define or redefine Yugoslavia's federal shape.

The opposition may also have to deal with the increased calls to dismantle the federation from those seeking secession in Montenegro and Kosovo.

Rebuilding Yugoslavia is a monumental task, but the time for change in the Balkans is ripe and the region is now a more democratic and pluralistic place than it ever has been.

Romania and Bulgaria are knocking on NATO and the EU's door, and recent elections in Albania -- the region's volatile laggard -- passed peacefully enough.

With the death late last year of strongman Franjo Tudjman who, like Milosevic, governed his country with an iron fist and established a network of cronies in the government, military, and media, Croatia has already had some success with liberalizing the economy and media.

Those involved in the reconstruction of Yugoslavia -- politicians, the Serbian people, and the international community -- will do well to learn from the mistakes made in Eastern Europe's decade of transition.

Post-communist societies have for the last 10 years been grappling with the finer points of market liberalisation, cumbersome and unwieldy bureaucracies, and a largely unfree media.

Most importantly, they have tried to come to terms with an uncomfortable past and have had varied degrees of success often learning the hard way.

With Milosevic gone, Yugoslavia has a clean slate. Hopefully in this transition to democracy, Europe will not see the same mistakes being made.

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