Serb vote: Can democrats cement win?

Zoran Djindjic is likely to become Serbia's next prime minister

BELGRADE, Yugoslavia (CNN) -- Saturday's Serb vote may mark the last act in a revolt that swept Slobodan Milosevic from power but left remnants of his regime in place.

The pro-democracy coalition spearheaded by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica is expected to win roughly three quarters of the 250 national assembly seats up for grabs in Yugoslavia's dominant republic.

The hope among many Serbs is that the elections will leave Kostunica and his supporters in control of Serbia's parliament, allowing them to appoint a government able to forge ahead with long-awaited reforms.

VIDEO CNN's Alessio Vinci reports from the Serbian polling stations (December 23) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)    REFERENCE Serbia Decides: Parliamentary Elections   •  Overview   •  What's at stake   •  Kostunica profile   •  Djindjic profile   •  Djindjic interview   •  Story archive   •  Message board   •  In-depth: Yugoslavia in Transition   •  Kosovo: Prospects for Peace   •  Audio file: Djindjic     Start the serious work Make courts independent

It is all but certain that Zoran Djindjic, a veteran opposition leader who ran Kostunica's election campaign, will be prime minister in the next government, replacing the acting Serbian premier, Socialist Milomir Minic.

Since assuming the mantle of the federal presidency in October, Kostunica, in the eyes of many Westerners, has personified Yugoslavia's hopes of overcoming a legacy of regional conflict, economic hardship and isolation spawned by the insular rule of his predecessor, Milosevic. But for all his global visibility, Yugoslavia's new president has remained hamstrung at home.

Under a transitional power-sharing arrangement, Milosevic's allies still have a hand on key levers of power at the republican level, especially in the critical spheres of policing and the judiciary where reform is seen as crucial.

Kostunica has come under fire for not seeming to move quickly enough to get rid of Milosevic's army chief of staff and the head of state security. In fact, observers say, his reluctance to act may be dictated by a perceived need to placate the old guard until Saturday's elections give him a firmer mandate.

The real question after Saturday's elections will be whether the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), conceived as a vehicle for ousting Milosevic, will remain cohesive enough to steer Serbia on a reformist path now that its primary goal has been achieved. Serbia's opposition has proved fractious in the past and further bickering could sap its strength as an effective force.

A recent poll by the Belgrade-based Centre for Research and Public Opinion showed Kostunica's DOS, the 18-party coalition that defeated Milosevic in September's federal presidential election, having just over 70 percent support in the upcoming Serb parliament vote.

Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia is seen garnering up to 13 percent of the vote. Ten percent of survey respondents indicated they would vote for other factions.

Another survey, by the Center for Alternative Studies, gave the democratic coalition 79 percent of the vote, compared with 7 percent for the Socialists.

Aside from the Socialists and the DOS coalition, six other parties are running in Saturday's elections. Among them are:

None of these parties is expected to surmount the 5 percent hurdle required to gain a seat in the parliament.

Milosevic, who was re-elected party chief at a defiant Socialist congress in November, is likely to win a seat in parliament -- ensuring him immunity against prosecution at home for war crimes allegedly committed by troops under his command in Kosovo province.

CNN Belgrade Bureau Chief Alessio Vinci, The Associated Press & Reuters contributed to this report.

Kostunica pressured by protests
December 14, 2000
NATO patrol attacked at Kosovo border
December 17, 2000

Socialist Party of Serbia
Democratic Party
Government of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

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