One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

New Blood for New Jersey Republicans?

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco, who also serves as president of the state Senate, gave his fellow Garden State Republicans a gift last week: He announced that he would not seek election later this year.

DiFrancesco's decision, following damaging reports about everything from his personal finances to his performance as a township attorney years ago, dramatically alters the shape of a gubernatorial race altered the first time when Christie Todd Whitman left office earlier this year to become President Bush's administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Many Republicans had hoped that Whitman's exit, which elevated DiFrancesco to acting governor, would short-circuit the gubernatorial efforts of Bret Schundler, the conservative Republican mayor of Jersey City. Instead, DiFrancesco's campaign imploded, boosting the prospects of Schundler in the primary and of Democrat Jim McGreevey in the general election.

DiFrancesco's recent announcement not only took him out of the state's 2001 race for governor but also brought in a new entry, former Congressman Bob Franks.

Franks, who ran a credible effort against Democratic mega-millionaire Jon Corzine in last year's U.S. Senate race, had been preparing to run against Democratic Sen. Bob Torricelli in 2002. But the former state legislator and one-time GOP state chairman has eyed the governorship for years, and at the urging of the state's Republican leaders he immediately filled the void created by DiFrancesco's exit.

Franks' entry changes dramatically the outlooks for the primary and general elections. It undercuts the candidacy of Schundler, who has never been embraced by party insiders or county leaders. Those leaders are crucial in New Jersey politics, since they select the party's "endorsed" candidate and give him or her a spot on the party's ballot "line."

An articulate conservative who has won election and re-election in a very Democratic community, Schundler has typically depended in GOP primaries on his message of change and on his criticisms of Whitman and later, DiFrancesco.

Although Franks is a former state assemblyman and a moderate, he went to Washington in 1992. Schundler will have difficulty painting him as part of the Whitman-DiFrancesco administration.

Even so, Schundler's allies quickly started branding Franks as a "paid lobbyist" and "the willing tool of DiFrancesco," and his campaign sued to stop state and local officials from allowing Franks on the ballot. Unless the legal challenge works (Schundler's team is making various constitutional arguments against laws enacted by the state legislature), the mayor will find himself a heavy underdog in the primary.

Unlike DiFrancesco, Franks apparently is without political baggage. The former congressman was surely fully vetted by Corzine during the 2000 Senate race, and anything that could put Franks in a negative light has already come out.

Most New Jersey insiders believe that Franks' candidacy (again, assuming that the courts don't act to prevent him from running) transforms the race from a likely Democratic win to dead even.

McGreevey, the mayor of Woodbridge and a one-time state legislator, has drawn no opposition for the Democratic nomination for governor. In early polling, he had built an early lead when matched against either DiFrancesco or Schundler.

DiFrancesco's personal problems would have made him unelectable in the fall. Schundler's conservatism (including his pro-life, anti-gun control and school choice views) would make him unacceptable to the swing and moderate voters he would need in November. Against either, McGreevey would be a solid favorite.

But Franks is a known commodity, and his overall style and issue positioning fit the state nicely. All of this does not mean he will beat McGreevey in the fall, but it does suggest a competitive race.

With New Jersey clearly tilting Democratic these days, any statewide race is a problem for the Garden State GOP. But DiFrancesco's exit makes for a fairer fight, and a more interesting race to watch.

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