Will U.S. warm to climate treaty talks?

By Natalie Pawelski
CNN Environment Correspondent

(CNN) -- The latest round of U.N.-sponsored global warming talks takes place over the next two weeks in Bonn. It is the first such conference since President Bush abandoned the Kyoto treaty.

When international negotiators last gathered to tackle global warming, in the Netherlands in November, the U.S. delegation ran into opposition from protestors accusing the United States of dragging its feet.

This time around more harsh words are expected, from diplomats upset that Bush declared the Kyoto Protocol dead.

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"The criticisms will come fast and furious in Bonn. It is scripted and it is expected. It will be sort of like watching a World Wrestling Federation smack down. It looks painful to the observer until they realize it is all done for show," said Glenn Kelly of the Global Climate Coalition, a U.S. business group that opposes the treaty.

Glenn Kelly

Despite the White House decision to drop the Kyoto Treaty, the U.N.-sponsored plan to curb global warming, the administration has sent a delegation to the Bonn Conference.

"I think the real question is going to be, 'Does the U.S. try to either passively or actively block progress other countries might be trying to make to complete the negotiations and move ahead," said Kalee Kreider of the National Environmental Trust.

President Bush has called for more research on global warming and said international efforts should focus on new clean technologies rather than mandatory pollution controls, which the administration said could hurt the U.S. economy.

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Many U.S. business leaders said Bush has the right idea.

"He understands how important it is that we should base our actions on sound science, on market principles, on technology, rather than on the U.N. telling us how much energy we can or cannot use," Kelly said.

Kalee Kreider

Kyoto treaty supporters, including major environmental groups, think enough scientific studies have demonstrated that immediate action must be taken, led by the United States.

"The U.S. is the largest polluter. We contribute 25 percent of the global warming pollution that you find in the atmosphere. So it's just really unfortunate that Bush chose to abandon this treaty without any real policy review," Kreider said.

In Bonn, all eyes will be on the Japanese delegates, who may hold the fate of the treaty in their hands. If Tokyo decides against the agreement, negotiated on Japan's own turf, it is hard to see how it could survive.

But if Tokyo sides with Europe, the treaty could end up deciding how much the world combats global warming, whether or not the White House approves.