Analysis: Russia's Cuba spy dilemma

Putin, right, at a meeting with the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair: The Russian leader has backed U.S.-UK strikes in Afghanistan

MOSCOW, Russia -- Russia says closing its Cuban radar post will save more than $200 million a year in rent. But defence experts say it is not money that led to the decision.

Just last year Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the radar station, telling its workers how important it was.

"At that time, financial reasons did not make him say the station should be closed. Now he's saying it. That's why I think it's more a financial cover for a purely political decision," Ivan Safranchuk of the Center For Defense Information told CNN.

A Kremlin source told CNN that political considerations played a role in shutting the Lourdes, Cuba, post -- used for almost 40 years to spy on America -- and the radar station at Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam, another key Soviet-era ally.

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Several experts told the Reuters news agency that the monetary figures were notional because Cuba was paid for the base in barter -- mainly spare parts for its dilapidated Soviet-era military machine and oil.

Instead, analysts say the decision signals Putin's readiness to ignore military hawks and forge closer ties with Washington.

"It is the first real step toward a real partnership with the U.S.," said independent military expert Alexander Golts. "If you wanted a symbol of the Cold War, it was Lourdes.

"I think it is a clear signal to the U.S. that Russia is changing its position, that we are true allies. It is a very important signal which continues this shift of Mr. Putin toward a clear partnership with the West," Golts told Reuters.

Added Pavel Felgenhauer, another independent defence expert: "This is a real change in Russian strategic posture, one of the real significant ones after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Europe.

"Putin is saying to the Russian military: Forget about the United States and get down to the business of putting things in order in your own house," Felgenhauer told Reuters.

"It's preposterous to spend a lot of money in eavesdropping on the United States when you can't win a war in Chechnya," he said, referring to Russia's battle to restore its rule in the rebel province.

Putin's decision came on the eve of the APEC summit in Shanghai and a meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush, who hailed the move as "another indication that the Cold War is over... President Putin understands that Russia and America are no longer adversaries."

Putin is actively supporting the U.S.-led international coalition against terrorism, letting U.S. aircraft use Russian air space for humanitarian flights to Afghanistan and clearing the way for former Soviet republics in Central Asia to offer their air bases to U.S. forces.

Vladimir Lukin, a senior lawmaker and former Russian ambassador to Washington, told NTV television that Russia's decision to close the Cuba and Vietnam posts should be reciprocated. Moscow is pushing for debt rescheduling and Western support for its attempt to join the World Trade Organisation.

While the decision could win Putin points internationally, especially with the United States, some observers predict he could run into domestic trouble for his decision.

Vadim Solovyov, managing editor of the Nezavisimaya Gazeta Military Review, told Reuters: "I think the majority of the higher echelons of power do not support the president" in his overtures to the West.

"They would like a tougher line to achieve more concessions from the American side on resolving problems of strategic national defense," a reference to U.S. missile defense plans hitherto opposed by Moscow.

Russia's withdrawal from the Vietnam base also will curb the navy's aspirations to play a strategic role in Asia.

Putin softened Wednesday's news by announcing more military funding. But whether he can take with him his hawkish Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov -- a close ally and fellow St. Petersburg native -- remains to be seen.

"Any further development in the partnership with the West moves us slowly to the underlying contradictions between Mr. Putin and those he thought were his closest allies," analyst Golts said.

Russia's decision has already met with anger from Cuba, which said Moscow did not have its permission to close the Lourdes station. Havana said the closure would pose a "grave risk" to Cuba's security and amounted to a "special present" to the United States.

But Moscow dismissed the criticism, saying the move was made only after long talks with Havana and that it shouldn't have come as a surprise to Cuba's leadership.

By contrast, Vietnam said Russia's withdrawal from Cam Ranh Bay was by mutual agreement and that Hanoi would use the facility for its own "socio-economic development objectives."

-- CNN Moscow Bureau Chief Jill Dougherty contributed to this report.