Power twist looms for China leaders

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN.com Senior China Analyst

Chinese President Jiang Zemin is making final assessments on whether to nominate Guangdong Party Secretary Li Changchun as vice-premier.

His elevation would take place at the forthcoming annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC).

A political source in Beijing said while the promotion of Li is key to Jiang's plan to consolidate his power, there is opposition.

A long-time protégé of the president's, Li, 57, is considered one of Jiang's candidates for the post of prime minister.

While Premier Zhu Rongji's tenure runs into March 2003, his successor will be determined at the 16th Communist Party Congress next year.

"Li needs to be posted to Beijing as vice-premier this year in order for him to have accumulated enough experience to be considered for the premier's job next year,'' the source said.

It is understood that Li, who started his job in Guangdong in early 1998, is anxious to go to Beijing. However, Jiang is weighing the feedback from different camps before making this important personnel decision.

For example, Zhu is known not to favor Li's promotion to Beijing as a vice-premier. The premier is pushing his own candidate, Vice Premier Wen Jiabao, as the future head of government.

Not optimistic

A Guangzhou-based cadre said Li was not optimistic about his ability to transfer to Beijing this year -- or his eventual chances of becoming premier.

"It is true that my title [after the 16th Congress] may have the word premier in it," Li was quoted as saying recently. "However, it's likely to be vice-premier."

The cadre said Li was unhappy that his promotion was being blocked by Zhu even though the premier recently maneuvered to have his protégé, Vice Governor of Guandong Wang Qishan, transferred to Beijing to head the State Council Office for Re-structuring the Economy.

A former party secretary of Liaoning and Henan provinces, Li has no experience working in the central government. Sources in Liaoning said Li's political fortune might be affected by the recent spate of corruption scandals in Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning.

Some of the cadres implicated in Shenyang are considered to be close to Li.

The annual plenary session of the NPC opens on March 5. The official media have pointed out the session will be dominated by economic matters, particularly the endorsement of the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-2005).

The plan will put emphasis on a steady annual growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent, preparation for the country's accession to the World Trade Organization, and the fast-paced development of the western provinces.

Diplomatic analysts said should the issue of the quasi-Buddhist sect Falun Gong remain unresolved, the Jiang administration will make use of the session to generate support among the 2,900-odd legislators for his crusade against the "cult."

They said because investigations and judicial proceedings regarding the Xiamen smuggling and corruption case have been further delayed, the authorities would likely try to discourage NPC deputies from dwelling on graft-related issues.

Jockeying begins for China's top job

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