Q & A: Who will replace Mori?

CNN's Marina Kamimura on the contenders in line to replace Yoshiro Mori as Japan's next prime minister

Q: Leadership crisis is a recurring theme in Japan. Is this time any different?

Kamimura: Anybody hoping for change is likely to be disappointed. Internally, the LDP is undecided about its next leader. The opposition too, despite gains in last summer's general elections, is still unable to come up with viable policies and alternatives to the current leadership.

Q: Does anybody want to take the helm?

Kamimura: With the Japanese economy at such a crucial point, and with Upper House elections looming, the ruling coalition senses huge losses ahead. Particularly in the LDP, few want to take the helm as interim Prime Minister. This was, after all, the position that Yoshiro Mori was in when he took over after Keizo Obuchi suffered a stroke. Observers say no matter who gets in after Mori, Japan is looking at a leadership that will be viewed as temporary, and a stopgap measure.

The leading candidate at this time is Junichiro Koizumi. His support comes mainly from the younger generation of Liberal Democrats who like his stated policies of economic and political reform, particularly when it comes to privatization of Japan's postal savings system. But those are the same reasons why he's seen as a threat by the establishment, who fear his talk of reform. Koizumi is liked by financial markets because of his tough talk on reform. But in an interview with CNN in 1998, he admitted his international experience was limited.

Others have mentioned Hiromu Nonaka as a possible contender, although both he and Koizumi say they're not appropriate candidates. Nonaka says he's too old and won't represent the change Japan wants at this time. Koziumi is being coy about calls for him to run. He's always stressing his support for Mr. Mori.

Some are saying the coalition partners may be asked to field a candidate, since nobody wants the job.

Q: The Prime Minister's unpopularity would seem to be a golden opportunity for the opposition in any multiparty system. Why is the Japanese opposition not taking advantage of it?

Kamimura: The opposition has failed to capitalize on this opportunity for the entire ten months Mori has been in power. While some members of the opposition want Mori out, there are just as many others who would like to see him stay on, since it plays much better into their hands going into the Upper House elections that have to be held by this summer.

The other factor is, if the opposition pushes much harder, there is a risk that the public could feel that people in control in Japan are cut of the same cloth.

Analysts say, however, that the LDP is in such disarray that it's having trouble turning around the opposition criticism.

Q: How much of an impact on the economy does this leadership dilemma have?

Kamimura: Mr. Mori's argument against all of the pressures for him to resign, is that he wants to stay in place at least long enough to enact the budget in March, for the fiscal year that begins in April. He is saying that his primary tasks are: reviving the economy, enacting education and IT reforms. But in fact, analysts say Japan's economy is on autopilot, and bureaucrats are still running the country, drawing up economy policy with or without a viable political leader.

The country is expected to be headed for more instability, whether Mori is in place or not. On the positive side, the economic and political turmoil now, could be good for Japan in the long run. Those who think Japan needs to change see the problems as growing pains.

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