Taiwan arms sales to top US-China agenda

Sales of advanced U.S. weaponry to Taiwan have long been a source of tension between the US and China

In this story: Military alliance Ideological rationale Heavy investment RELATED STORIES

By Andrea Koppel
CNN State Department Correspondent

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Chinese Vice-Premier Qian Qichen is due to arrive in Washington Monday for the highest level visit by a Chinese official since 1998.

During his week-long visit Qian will meet with President George W. Bush and many of Bush's aides, including Secretary of State Colin Powell and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.

The timing of Qian's visit is no accident.

Next month the Bush administration will decide which weapons systems the US will sell to Taiwan and the purpose of Qian's diplomatic mission will be to dissuade the president and his team from selling Taiwan everything on its "wish list."

In particular Beijing is vehemently opposed to US sales of four Aegis-equipped guided missile destroyers, which would dramatically improve Taiwan's ability to defend against aircraft attacks.

And that's not all. According to Banning Garrett, an expert on Asian strategic matters, China is most concerned about potential upgrades which could be made to the Aegis in the future.

"They are afraid that eventually it would be upgraded to theatre missile defense systems and that theatre missile defense would be linked in to U.S. defense systems in the region," said Garrett.

Military alliance

He says that Beijing fears such moves could lead to a "back door" restoration of the U.S.-Taiwan military alliance which was severed when Washington normalized relations with the People's Republic of China.

China says U.S. plans for a missile defense shield will spark a new arms race

In 1979 the Carter administration cut the official diplomatic chord with Taiwan and switched U.S. diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

In an effort to ease the shock, the US committed itself to providing adequate defenses to Taiwan, hence the annual debate over what types of U.S. weapons to sell Taiwan.

Colonel Larry Woertzel, Director of the Asian Studies Center of The Heritage Foundation, says due to the presence of hundreds of ballistic missiles in southern China, Taiwan needs all the help it can get.

"It's because China has built up 300 missiles so far and they're building more ballistic missiles to compel Taiwan to do its bidding.

"It's got all these new Soviet aircraft …. and I think Taiwan does need air defenses and Taiwan does need the ability to defend itself at sea. It does need command and control to coordinate and does need the ability to link its radar to weapons systems."

Thus far the Bush administration has not tipped its hand as to which way its leaning.

Still most believe the sale of the Aegis destroyers, an obvious "red-line" for China, will likely be deferred for at least another year.

Even so China's leadership has good reason to view this year's review as a real nail biter.

Ideological rationale

President Jiang Zemin is pushing hard to improve U.S.-China relations

Republican administrations have long leaned in favor of supporting Taiwan over China. And Pei Minxin, a China scholar at the Carnegie Institution, points out now that Taiwan is a thriving democracy that has only enhanced its reputation among its supporters.

"In contrast with China which is repressive, has a very bad human rights record, which is not democratizing, Taiwan has improved on all fronts. So that development has further strengthened American support for Taiwan.

"Now, in addition to this strategic rationale for supporting Taiwan, there's ideological rationale for supporting Taiwan."

This won't be an easy visit for Qian who was not invited by Washington.

Heavy investment

Instead Qian's boss, Chinese President Jiang Zemin got Qian an invite through back channels.

In recent years Jiang has himself invested tremendous political capital in improving US-China relations, and should things take a turn for the worse, Jiang will the one who is blamed.

Beyond discussing Taiwan arms sales Qian will also try to impress upon his hosts that China is not looking for a confrontation with the U-S.

As if to underscore that point, on the eve of Qian's visit, China's point-man on arms control Sha Zukang announced that Beijing was willing to discuss the United States proposed national missile defend shield.

Sha said China wanted to try to "narrow our differences," a move some experts call "quite significant." Pei Minxin said the announcement was "designed to improve the atmosphere before Qian's visit."

"It also shows Chinese policy makers have finally begun to understand the political reality surrounding the national missile defense," explained Pei,

"They've seen the Western Europeans changed their tone, the Russians have changed their tone, so they don't want to be the last odd man out," he said.

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