Seeking a face-saving solution to the spy plane row

Zhu and Pres. Jiang Zemin have asked for a U.S. apology

By Willy Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- The United States and China are looking for a face-saving diplomatic solution to the worst diplomatic incident to shake bilateral ties since they were established in 1979.

Diplomatic sources in Beijing believe that while Chinese leaders had toughened their stance on the U.S.'s role in the aircraft collision, they had also left room for compromise.

On Tuesday, both President Jiang Zemin had Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzhao demanded the U.S. apologize for the incident -- but they didn't say whether the release of the spy plane or its 24 crewmembers depended on that apology.

Jiang has asked Washington to stop sending reconnaissance planes close to Chinese territory -- yet Beijing has not laid charges of espionage against the plane's crew.

Chinese officials and diplomats in Beijing and Washington have also continued to reiterate their concern that the standoff should not disrupt long-term Sino-U.S. relations.

Advanced instructions

A Beijing foreign affairs professor and government adviser said it was likely that Jiang would have laid down instructions on what to do with the spy plane and the crew before he left to go on a six-nation tour of South America.

"It is possible that since the 24 airmen have not been labeled 'spies', they will be released within a short time frame," the professor said.

"However, Jiang and colleagues such as Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan have often come under domestic criticism for being soft against powers such as the U.S. and Japan," he said.

"The leadership will continue to adopt a tough posture on the spy plane issue - and it is likely Beijing will hold on to the aircraft for a considerable period," he said.

Mass movements

Both China and the U.S. are anxious to preserve their ties

A Western diplomat said a good indication of the toughness of the leadership's stance would be whether they would mobilize the people in a classic Mao-style mass movement against the "neo-imperialists."

The Xinhua news agency reported on Wednesday that "cadres and the masses" in cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Haikou had vented their anger at the "hegemonistic action" of Americans.

Some of these remarks, mostly by college professors, were quoted by Xinhua.

However, there is no sign that the leadership plans to mobilize college students and other residents to hold demonstrations outside American missions.

The bigger picture

It is understood that in the several strategy sessions called by the leadership on the spy plane crisis, cadres close to President Jiang had mentioned the importance of attending to long-term Sino-American cooperation.

Issues including Washington's pending sales of arms to Taiwan as well as the last stage of Sino-U.S. negotiations on China's accession to the World Trade Organization were mentioned.

"The best-case scenario is that Beijing will be satisfied with the hi-grade equipment and intelligence they can get out of the spy plane," said a member of an official think tank in Beijing.

"The leadership has also been able to use the incident to condemn long-standing U.S. surveillance activities near Chinese territory.

"There is a possibility that even without a formal apology from Washington, Beijing will agree to wrap up the crisis before bilateral ties were to worsen significantly."

The think-tank member said, however, the resolution would be derailed or put off if Washington were to adopt strong-armed tactics such as sending naval vessels to the vicinity or making threats about selling sophisticated weapons to Taiwan later this month.

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