Diplomatic pain, political gain for Jiang

Jiang's retirement will create a vacuum in the CCP foreign-policy apparatus

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

Chinese President Jiang Zemin may turn out to be the biggest beneficiary of the spy plane incident.

The diplomatic standoff with the United States could help the 74-year-old Jiang retain his position as final arbiter of Chinese politics for at least a few more years.

In theory, Jiang, who left the country for a two-week tour of South America three days after the U.S. EP-3E spy plane collided with a Chinese jetfighter, has asked heir-apparent Vice President Hu Jintao to take charge of negotiations with the Bush administration.

Jiang, head of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Leading Group on Foreign Affairs (LFGA) -- the country's highest diplomatic decision-making organ -- has been running the show by remote control together with Vice Premier Qian Qichen.

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Qian, a LGFA stalwart, Politburo member and former foreign minister, is the country's foremost expert on the U.S. and Taiwan.

A source familiar with Jiang Zemin's office indicated that the increasingly complicated relationship with the U.S. meant China could not afford to do without Jiang's services.

Jiang is scheduled to step down from his position of Communist party general secretary in 2002 and that of state president a year later.

His retirement will create a vacuum in the CCP foreign-policy apparatus particularly given that Qian, 72, will also be leaving the Politburo next year.

Replacing Jiang

The lack of a heavyweight strategist will be exacerbated by the fact that neither Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan nor his deputy and possible successor, Li Zhaoxing, are expected to be elevated to the Politburo any time soon.

"Jiang's aides are saying he should retain a substantial position, for example, chairman of the Central Military Commission, after he ceases to be CCP general secretary and state president," a source said.

"The Jiang loyalists are also hinting that Hu, 58, is too young to grasp the intricacies behind the neo-imperialists' machinations against China."

The Vice President, who does not come from Jiang's Shanghai Faction, is expected to succeed Jiang as party boss and president.

However, Hu, who has looked after party affairs his entire career, lacks diplomatic experience. His reputed poor health has affected his program of overseas visits and he is not even a LGFA member.

In arguing that President Jiang should stay on to help Beijing cope with an increasingly treacherous world, his aides have also cited his track record as the originator of "great power diplomacy."

In the Chinese context, 'great power diplomacy' means after decades in the diplomatic wilderness, China is on the point of wielding an influence on the world stage comparable to that of major countries and blocs such as the U.S. and the European Union.

Jiang had a lot of fun playing the role of senior international statesman during the two summits with former president Bill Clinton, when both leaders agreed their countries should forge a "constructive, strategic partnership for the 21st century."

Spy plane incident can 'teach Bush a lesson'

One reason why Jiang is unhappy with the Bush administration is Washington's refusal to accord China the status of a quasi-superpower.

For example, the Bush team has made it clear the priority of its Asian policy is consolidating ties with traditional allies such as Japan and South Korea.

"In Chinese eyes, the spy plane incident has given an opportunity for Jiang to teach Bush a lesson," said an Asian diplomat.

"Jiang has been able to force the Bush team to yield one thing after another, first expressing 'regrets' over the incident and then saying 'sorry'. The U.S. is made to understand China has what it takes to thwart American predominance in Asia."

The diplomat added that Jiang's supporters are adamant that he should be around to see great power diplomacy through an exceptionally challenging period.

For instance, the president could play a big role in persuading Bush that it is in the U.S. interest to work with China as equals rather than try to isolate the Asian giant through an 'anti-China containment policy.'

Apart from his status as China's prime diplomatic theorist, Jiang is widely seen as the only figure who can rein in the military hawks.

As with past confrontations with the U.S., whether the spy plane episode will be resolved in China's favor could hinge on the civilian leadership's ability to tone down the rhetoric of hard-line generals.

Domestically, the standoff with the Bush administration has coincided with efforts by Jiang to restore the authority of the 'central Communist party leadership with comrade Jiang Zemin as its core.'

The Four Cardinal Principles

As a party veteran saw it, Jiang was telling the nation that at a time when the country is buffeted by both foreign foes and destabilizing forces at home, everybody should rally behind the CCP and its dominant Jiang Zemin faction.

The message was given by Jiang at a National Work Meeting on Social Order one day before he left for South America.

At the high-level conclave, Jiang revived the Mao-era Four Cardinal Principles: sticking to the socialist road; implementing "the people's democratic dictatorship"; upholding CCP leadership; and observing Marxism-Leninism, Mao Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory.

Said the party veteran: "The Four Cardinal Principles were hailed by Deng Xiaoping largely to placate the party's Maoist faction. This obsolete dogma has not been cited in the official media for quite some time."

At the law-and-order conference, Jiang repeated the conservative line that the twin goals of upholding the Four Cardinal Principles and pursuing economic reform must be "tightly synthesized."

The party chief and president particularly saluted the precepts of CCP supremacy and the dictatorship of the proletariat.

"We must uphold the leadership and core positions of the party in the course of building Chinese-style socialism," he said. "The party must take charge of the entire [national] situation."

Jiang called the Leninist principle of the people's democratic dictatorship "the premise of the Chinese state." He said this dictum must be upheld to "maintain the sovereignty of the nation as well as its safety, unity and stability."

There seems little doubt that Jiang is reviving Lenin's, and Mao's, concept of imposing dictatorship on the party's foes.

And who are the so-called targets of dictatorship except elements such as "class enemies", free-thinking intellectuals and underground political parties who have become agents of the "neo-imperialist" West?

Liberal cadres and academics have accused Jiang of turning back the clock on political reform.

However, the president's aides have claimed the spy plane incident has fully exposed Washington's anti-China conspiracy.

And they say the only antidote is to tighten political control -- and rally around a strong leader -- in the course of developing the economy with the help of Western countries, including the United States.

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