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Favorite tops poll in Japan PM race

In this story:

'Distrust of politics'

Abysmal performance

RELATED STORIES, SITES

TOKYO, Japan -- A favorite emerged as television talk shows became the weapon of choice for Japan's prime ministerial candidates on Sunday.

The four men, competing to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and hence become the next prime minister, went on show for Japanese audiences.

IN-DEPTH

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While former prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto is believed to have an edge in political circles, eccentric reformer Junichiro Koizumi already seems to be the runaway popular choice.

Although the winner will be decided by a party vote on April 24, popular opinion is likely to play a role. The new prime minister will have only three months to win back support before Upper House elections.

An overwhelming 65 percent of voters polled at the weekend said they felt the quixotic Koizumi would make the best prime minister, according to a survey by Asahi Television.

Hashimoto, by contrast, came a poor second with only 17 percent. The other two contenders, Economics Minister Taro Aso and Shizuka Kamei, conservative policy chief for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), fared even worse, drawing only marginal support.

Whoever wins the contest to succeed the unpopular Yoshiro Mori will become Japan's 11th prime minister in 13 years by virtue of the large majority held by the LDP and its two partners in the ruling coalition in the powerful Lower House.

Koizumi, who has already lived up to his reputation as an eccentric by ditching his LDP faction, was clearly playing to the public on Sunday when he called for widespread political reform.

'Distrust of politics'

"I am running because I want to change the LDP, that's true," he told an NHK television talkshow. "But even more than that, I am running because there's a huge distrust of politics among Japanese voters.

"We must recapture people's trust. That is even more important than quashing anti-LDP feeling."

Public opinion is significant this year due to the unusual importance of votes by local party chapters -- where Koizumi is believed to hold more sway.

Upper House elections in July are also casting a shadow over the race, and if the LDP fares as badly as many expect -- the winner could be forced to resign only three months into the job.

Hashimoto is the favorite, commanding the backing of the 101 members of his faction, the largest in the multi-group LDP. But the usually predetermined race could get close if the campaign goes to a run-off vote and pitches him against Koizumi.

Among voters, though, his failures as prime minister from 1996 to 1998 are overshadowing his campaign.

"How could we have Hashimoto as prime minister again?" said Toru Hosoda, a shopowner in Ichikawa, just east of Tokyo. "He failed once already. This would be a national humiliation."

Abysmal performance

Hashimoto's 1997 decision as prime minister to raise taxes and cut spending was widely blamed for tipping the economy into recession, setting the stage for an abysmal LDP performance in a 1998 Upper House election, a defeat that forced him to resign.

Aware of this, Hashimoto has taken great pains to appear contrite since tossing his hat into the ring, saying his experience of adversity has made him stronger.

"While I still don't believe my policies were wrong, my timing definitely was," he said. "And I hope I can put to work the experiences gained from this failure."

Shizuka Kamei differentiated himself by stressing his commitment to the old, pump-priming pork-barrel politics of the past decade, reiterating his calls for an extra budget.

Playing to rural areas that have traditionally been the backbone of LDP support, the former policeman Kamei told Fuji television: "City people say public works spending is wasted, but there are still many people out in the country who don't even have flush toilets. There is much left to be done."

Koizumi, who had rattled some in the three-party coalition by saying last week that he would not rule out cooperating with the opposition, held out an olive branch to his coalition partners by stressing that their participation is essential.

"But these are not times where I could refuse anyone who was in favour of my policies and wanted to help," he said, speaking as the world's number two economy teeters on the brink of recession after 10 years of stop-start growth.

"Policies are the most important thing."

The LDP's 346 lawmakers will cast their ballots on April 24 with an additional 141 votes coming from the LDP chapters.

But Hashimoto could gain a crucial edge due not only to his faction's strength but its influence, which enables it to promise future favors in return for support.

As well as his own faction, Hashimoto can expect the 43 members of another to fall in behind him.

Koizumi can expect support from three factions, whose members total 98, plus a large portion of the 141 local chapter votes.

Reuters contributed to this report.