China warns U.S. of parameters in Taiwan relations

China is worried Bush's words may fan pro-Taiwan independence sentiment

By Willy Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- China is warning the United States that a military conflict could arise, if Washington gives up a long-standing principle of "strategic ambiguity" on America's defense of Taiwan.

A Chinese source in Beijing has said President George W. Bush might encourage pro-independence sentiment in Taiwan, if Washington says it would use military means to help Taipei forces fend off a Chinese attack.

He added that in response, China might flex its muscles by piling up more missiles along the coast or holding military exercises close to Taiwan.

"The recent spy plane incident has shown the increasing ease with which even accidents such as the collision or near-collision of military aircraft might lead to a major crisis," the source said.

"Should Washington send more spy planes or naval vessels to the area in reaction to a perceived mainland threat to the island, the chances of military confrontation will escalate."

"Wild" statement

A commentary in the official People's Daily website described Bush's statement on Wednesday as "wild."

It said the Taiwan Relations Act did not authorize the U.S. administration to use military means to defend the island.

Analysts say Beijing is reminding Washington through diplomatic channels that Bush's latest statement contradicts the stance and policies adhered to by previous U.S. administrations since it broke away from Taipei in 1979.

Beijing is also telling U.S. officials that American public opinion is against the deployment of forces to help Taiwan, given the possibility of civilian casualties.

Professor Pan Wei, a Peking University expert on the U.S. said the Bush administration would not be so "stupid" as to give up the principle of strategic ambiguity.

"A commitment to defend Taiwan means the U.S. will lose the initiative as it may be dragged into war by Taiwan," Pan said.

"Washington will be led by the nose [by pro-independence elements in Taiwan]. It would be a joke if two major powers were to go to war through the machinations of a small island."

Professor X.L. Ding, an expert at the University of Science and Technology in Hong Kong, thinks Bush wants to serve a warning on Beijing, as Washington may have learnt that hardliners in China favor speedy military action against Taiwan.

However, Ding said Washington also wanted to send a tough message to Taipei.

"Both Beijing and Taipei are urged by Washington to pay attention to a newly clarified minefield map," Ding said.

"Washington's message is Taiwan will get blown up if it crosses the line by declaring formal independence - and China will also be blown up if it crosses the line by staging an attack on Taiwan."

20 years - Taiwan Relations Act

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