Seoul's missile dilemna

Kim Dae-jung says he understands Washington's position

By CNN's Sohn Jie-Ae

SEOUL, South Korea -- One would think U.S. President George W. Bush's plans to build a comprehensive missile defense shield would go down well in South Korea.

North Korea is frequently mentioned as one of the "rogue states" that pose a missile threat, and the South plays host to 37,000 U.S. troops to protect it against any possible aggression from the North.

But Seoul has so far remained neutral. South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung was quoted as saying he understands Washington's position and appreciated being consulted when President Bush called him Wednesday to explain his missile shield plan.

But he stopped short of an endorsement.

Sharing a cultural history

Seoul has several reasons for being cautious. A major one is fear of damaging relations with neighboring China.

While in recent years Seoul has aligned itself with Washington, China and Korea share a long cultural history.

"China is vehemently against the Theater Missile Defense system, and if we were to join the TMD along with the U.S., this could strain our relationship with China," says Lee Jong-Hoon, a political science professor at Yonsei University.

Another factor is even closer to home -- North Korea.

Inter-Korean relations have stalled recently

Ever since a summit between the leaders of South and North Korea last June, there has been a new mood of reconciliation between the two Koreas. A mood that critics say the Bush administration has endangered.

Already inter-Korean relations have been stalled as Pyongyang awaits the Bush administration to formulate its North Korean policy.

If Seoul were to be seen backing Washington in protecting itself again missile threats from nations like North Korea, many fear the hopes of reconciliation between the two Koreas could be gone forever.

"The Korean people would be the greatest victims (of Washington's missile shield plan)," said Oh Jong-Ryoul, president of the National Alliance for Democracy and the Reunification of Korea. He and other civic leaders staged a protest in front of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul.

The protesters urged President Kim Dae-Jung to oppose the missile defense plan.

"If we don't, then we will be the front line in a new era of the Cold War and a new arms race," Oh said.

Negative reaction expected

Analysts do expect the North to react negatively.

In the short term, inter-Korean relations could experience a backlash. Talks could be cancelled, contacts postponed.

But they also say in the long term, even if Seoul ultimately backed Washington, this would not be a fatal blow to inter-Korean relations.

"North Korea may be dangerous, but it is not suicidal," says Lee. "North Korea will not opt for some belligerent conduct. It will not go to war over this issue."

Seoul officials will try to explain its position regarding the missile issue when Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James Kelly visits Seoul next week for consultations on various affairs including North Korea.

While many are speculating that in the long-run, Seoul will have little choice but to fall behind Washington in the missile defense issue, few in South Korea see many benefits for backing Washington at this juncture.

So for as long as it can, Seoul will opt to remain neutral.

See related sites about Asia

Note: Pages will open in a new browser window

External sites are not endorsed by CNN Interactive.