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How China retreats to attack


In this story:

Nothing has changed

Patch up ties

'Something to show'

Younger generation

Remarks to a minimum




(CNN) -- "When the enemy advances, we retreat; when the enemy retreats, we press forward," said Mao Zedong.

"Keep a cool head and maintain a low profile," instructed Deng Xiaoping. "Never take the lead - but aim to do something big."

President Jiang Zemin has an updated version of the dicta of the two Chinese-Communist giants, which can be translated as "he who strikes last will score best."

Since the inauguration of President George W. Bush, the Jiang leadership has adopted a conciliatory U.S, policy that borders on a Mao-style tactical retreat.

This has become particularly evident after the spy plane episode exposed to the full Bush's hawkish, "anti-China containment policy."

In close succession, Bush and his aides have ratcheted up the pressure on Beijing.

Such moves have included condemning China's human rights records; selling arms to Taiwan; vowing to protect the island against invasion; granting a transit visa to Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian; resuming spy flights along the Chinese coast; laying the foundation for a missile-defense system; and deploying more military resources to Asia to apparently target China.

In explaining why the Bush administration had ordered a review of military and other exchanges with Beijing, National Security Adviser Condolezza Rice said bluntly that bilateral ties were "no longer the same as before."

However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's reactions to these slings and arrows have been uncharacteristically mild.

Nothing has changed

And Chinese leaders including Jiang have gone out of their way to reassure the world that nothing has changed.

While in Hong Kong for the Fortune Global Forum last week, senior ministers claimed the media had "exaggerated" the extent of the downward spiral in Sino-U.S. ties.

In various public appearances in Hong Kong, Jiang made not a single reference to the confrontation with the U.S.

He merely expressed the wish that bilateral relations be "dealt with from a long-term perspective" and that differences between the two countries be "handled in a proper way."

On the nettlesome question of what to do with the downed EP-3 surveillance aircraft, Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng asserted last Friday that there had been a "satisfactory resolution to the troubles."

Xiang's statement was puzzling given the fact that China and the U.S. remained divided on how the plane should be returned, in addition to related issues such as compensation and future spy flights close to China.

For example, Vice Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing pointed out Beijing could not agree to the U.S. proposal that American staff fly the plane back after fixing it up.

The reason Li gave, however, also raised eyebrows. He said the "dignity and feelings of Chinese would be hurt and their anger aroused" if they saw the repaired plane being flown back to the U.S.

Patch up ties

Chinese soldiers
Hitting back could include hi-tech sales to Pakistan and Iran  

An Asian diplomat pointed out Li was in effect pleading with Washington to show sympathy to the Beijing leadership, which wanted badly to patch up ties with the U.S. without appearing cowardly before their own people.

The big question: having made one retreat after another, when will the Jiang administration hit back?

It is true that Jiang has mentioned upgrading the quasi-military alliance with Russia.

Other officials have hinted at the possibility of resuming the sale of hi-tech weapons to Pakistan and Iran. There is also talk of nuclear tests on the way.

Such vague threats, however, hardly amount to a tough or viable response. Given the rise of nationalistic and anti-U.S. feelings across the land, can the Jiang administration risk being accused of kowtowing before the "hegemonists"?

This question must be examined in light of the broad-based coalition that has slammed Beijing's U.S. policy.

This burgeoning "nationalistic cabal" consists of both ends of the political spectrum: leftists or conservatives opposed to market reforms, as well as rightists, or liberal intellectuals who blame the ineptness of Chinese diplomacy on Beijing's undemocratic decision-making processes.

For example, U.S.-trained commentator Tong Xiaoxi have ridiculed Beijing's appeals to Washington to consider the feelings of the Chinese people.

'Something to show'

Tong said in the course of negotiating with the Americans, Chinese diplomats had pretty much admitted Beijing's goal was not so much asserting China's rights or seeking justice as "having something to show to the masses so as to avoid losing face before its own people."

Much more significant is the fact that the Jiang critics have gone beyond arguments about diplomatic strategies to attacking the entire political and economic system.

In an article carried by a left-wing website, "new left" theorist Wu Li claimed China's ruling class was nothing more than "a synthesis of the interests of bureaucrats, private bosses, and transnational capital."

Wu argued that Jiang and his colleagues dared not run foul of the U.S. because they needed "the support of multinationals" to maintain economic growth, profits for themselves, as well as social stability.

Or as economist Lu Zhoulai indicated, the only way that Beijing could stand up to the Americans was through "improving its work, stamping out corruption and developing democracy."

For the past month or so Beijing has asked the official media to stop running excessively anti-U.S. articles. However, it is difficult even for Chinese censors to silence critics who are airing their views in the name of patriotism.

Jiang also has to contend with the rising tide of hawkish views within the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

A number of officers have indirectly blasted Beijing's "soft" U.S. policy by writing to the Central Military Commission (CMC) to volunteer their services in "shooting down the next U.S. spy plane that dares come our way."

For the near term, the president seems to have a tight grip on the PLA top brass.

Senior generals such as the two CMC Vice-chairmen -- Zhang Wannian and Chi Haotian -- owe their promotion to Jiang.

Younger generation

The same is true for the three generals tipped to be elevated to top CMC positions at the upcoming 16th CCP congress: Head of the General Equipment Department Cao Gangchuan, Deputy Chief of Staff Guo Boxiong, and Deputy Chief Political Commissar Xu Caihou.

However, the president's control over the younger generation -- colonels and senior colonels in their 40s -- is dicey. And it is precisely among the colonels that nationalistic -- and anti-Jiang -- sentiments are running high.

The young turks' clout -- and rebelliousness -- was indirectly demonstrated by the so-called Ji Shengde affair.

A major-general in charge of intelligence, Ji was implicated in the smuggling scandal centered on the Fujian port of Xiamen.

However, Ji was considered a hero among younger officers for his opposition to Jiang's 1998 decision to close down PLA enterprises -- and for ensuring that some of the profits generated out of Xiamen were channeled back to the barracks.

Jiang's decision in mid-2000 to slap the death sentence on Ji had run into opposition. The president was later obliged to settle for a "compromise" jail term of 20 years for the disgraced general.

In private conversation, quite a few young turks have seconded the views of retired generals such as Liu Huaqing and Zhang Zhen that Jiang lacked the guts to take on "cowboy Bush."

That Jiang may run into trouble where he has claimed special credit -- Sino-U.S. policy -- is evidenced by the eerie silence that a number of Politburo stalwarts have maintained on the recent spats with Washington.

Remarks to a minimum

The two Politburo Standing Committee members deemed to be Jiang foes -- Li Ruihuan and Wei Jianxing -- have kept mum on ties with the U.S. The same is true for Jiang's supposed heir apparent, Vice President Hu Jintao.

Even Premier Zhu Rongji, who is also vilified by nationalists as "pro-American," has kept his remarks about the U.S. to a minimum.

This intriguing reticence has fed speculation these heavyweights may be keeping their distance from Jiang on the potentially explosive issue.

It is true that many Western observers would agree with Jiang that before China has developed its economy -- a process that requires U.S. help -- it will be futile for Beijing to lock horns with Washington.

However, rampant corruption among the cadres and their American-educated offspring -- as well as an anti-democratic political system -- has convinced more and more Chinese that Beijing's top cadres dare not confront the "neo-imperialistic" Yankees because their vested business interests and other privileges are at stake.



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