How wily Li beat the Tiananmen rap

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- Much of the intrigue and skulduggery of Chinese politics is evident by looking at the personality and recent moves of former premier Li Peng -- and the mostly likely next premier, Wen Jiabao.

Li, head of the State Council, or cabinet from 1988 to 1998, has continued to surprise observers by his knack for remaining in the headlines -- and the game.

Vilified by the West as the "butcher of Tiananmen Square," Li, 72, was thought to be heading for semi-retirement when he became Chairman of the National People's Congress (NPC) in 1998.

His reputation suffered a further blow with the publication of the Tiananmen Papers last December, which confirmed his role in the suppression of the student movement in 1989.

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Since early this year, however, Li has confounded his critics by staging a comeback. Quite a number of Sinologists believe he has a reasonably good chance of retaining substantial influence after the pivotal 16th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress next year.

Beijing is awash with speculation Li has begun an unofficial campaign to take over the state presidency from Jiang Zemin when the latter retires from that position in 2003.

Master tactician

While cartoonists in Hong Kong and Taiwan like to portray Li as a nitwit, the consistently under-rated Li has displayed the flair of a master tactician.

As early as the spring of 2000, Li knew that as his NPC tenure would be ending in March, 2003, the chances of his being made a scapegoat for the June 4 crackdown would become higher.

The reason is simple. It would be tempting for Fourth Generation politicians, or cadres in their late 50s to early 60s, to try to score points with liberal opinion at home and abroad by revising the official verdict on Tiananmen -- and pinning the blame on Li.

Several months before the publication of the Tiananmen Papers, Li put together a four-hour video on the suppression of the "counter-revolutionary turmoil." Last autumn the video was shown to cadres with the rank of vice-minister or above.

After the Papers came out, Li succeeded in persuading President Jiang and the Politburo that it was part of an "international conspiracy" to subvert the CCP.

The video was screened at a Central Level Work Meeting last February, in which Li pointed out that "had it not been for the resolute action taken by [late patriarch] Deng Xiaoping and other trustworthy comrades, China would have gone the way of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s."

"Li is able to exploit of fears of conservative officials such as Jiang that the CCP may be driven out of power," said a retired party cadre. "Paranoia about losing the mandate of heaven has been exacerbated by [U.S. President] George Bush's aggressive policies against China."

Allegiance sworn

At the Central Level Work Meeting, Li and Jiang were able to oblige all participants to swear allegiance to Beijing's original verdict on the massacre. After the conclave, the video was shown to mid-ranking cadres nationwide.

Li has also been able to exploit the anxiety of Jiang, 74, to remain head of the powerful Central Military Commission after the 16th CCP Congress.

Party insiders say since March, Li has been telling senior cadres because of the increasingly complicated global situation -- a reference to Washington's effort to dismantle the CCP a la the Soviet party -- the Fourth Generation requires a few experienced cadres like himself and Jiang to stay on for a few more years.

Li reportedly told intimates that while he would be 74 by 2003, he would still be younger than the late Yang Shangkun when the latter became president in 1983 at the age of 81.

Analysts say Li has a sizeable following among the fastest-growing coalition in Chinese politics: nationalists and anti-U.S. radicals, as well as leftists who are opposed to market reforms and globalization.

Moderate reform

They say the Soviet-trained former premier also enjoys the support of conservative party elders such as Deng Liqun and Song Ping, who are opposed to even moderate political reform such as rejuvenation of cadres.

Li has been in the limelight the past month. After visiting the provinces to lobby for greater powers to be given the NPC, the parliament chief has gone on a tour of Cambodia, Brunei and South Korea.

By contrast, Wen, who will likely be promoted prime minister in 2003, is low-key and taciturn to a fault.

In a sense, the 58-year-old vice premier is but following Chinese tradition: the worst thing an up-and-coming politician can do is to be seen spouting unorthodox ideas or upstaging his elders.

However, compared with other Fourth Generation stalwarts such as Hu Jintao -- who will likely become party general secretary next year -- Wen has a special reason to take a low profile.

The former geologist first gained national prominence by being made a vice-director of the party Central Committee' General Office -- dubbed the nerve center of the nation -- by liberal party chief Hu Yaobang in 1985.

Student firebrands

And the best-known photo of Wen remains the one taken in May, 1989, when he accompanied then party general secretary Zhao Ziyang to Tiananmen Square to talk to the student firebrands.

It is a tribute to Wen's political skills that he managed to stay in the good books of President Jiang, who succeeded Zhao as party boss immediately after the massacre.

More importantly, since becoming vice-premier in 1998, Wen has proven himself indispensable to his new boss, Premier Zhu Rongji.

Among the four vice-premiers, the Tianjin native has held the most important portfolios. They include agriculture, finance, and major projects, such as the develop-the-west program and the drafting of the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-2005).

Beijing analysts have credited a number of important initiatives to Wen.

A few years ago, the vice-premier was instrumental in limiting the taxes that the country's overburdened farmers have to pay to five percent of their income. Late last year, he and Zhu announced that it would be illegal for grassroots administrations to slap levies and other charges on peasants.

Wen has worked hard to expand the stock markets -- and to ensure that better-quality state-owned enterprises can go through quasi-privatization through listings on the bourses.

"Wen has earned the endearing nickname 'little Zhou Enlai'," said a party source while referring to the revered late premier.

"During cabinet meetings, [Premier] Zhu often asks Wen to sum up the views and suggestions of ministers and experts. Wen is less garrulous than cabinet members such as Vice Premier Wu Banguo. But few can match Wen's ability to convert complicated arguments into straightforward policy recommendations."

Reformist credentials

The source said while Wen had studiously steered clear of controversial ideological issues such as political liberalization, his reformist credentials were impressive.

While addressing an investors' forum last March, Wen said China must "enthusiastically" take part in globalization. "We must grasp the trends of global international development, take firm hold of the opportunities and boldly accept challenges," the vice premier said.

And while touring Anhui Province earlier this year, Wen told local cadres to "continue to make bold explorations, create new experience and steadfastly push reform forward."

Of course, not all Beijing observers have high opinions of the rising star. If only for the fact that he went through the June 4, 1989 crisis unscathed, Wen has been accused to toadying up to Jiang and the Shanghai Faction.

According to Wu Jiaxiang, a former Central Committee think tank member now doing research at Harvard University, the nervous political climate in Beijing would make it difficult for Wen to display his true colors.

"Wen is regarded as a reformer at heart," said Wu, adding that much depends on the outcome of factional struggle now being played out in Beijing.

This much, however, is certain.

If conservatives such as Li Peng manage to hang on to power despite their advanced age and outdated dogma, the chances of Fourth Generation reformers successfully pushing new visions and bold ideas will become that much lower.