Chinese study warns of WTO unrest

A job-hunting chef in an open labor market in Beijing

By staff and wire reports

BEIJING, China -- China's government has released a rare report warning of "massive grievances" over economic and ethnic conflicts upon its entry into the World Trade Organization.

The report, titled "2000-2001 China Investigation Report: Research Into Contradictions Among The People Under New Conditions," also offers an admission of widespread protests over corruption and other social problems in China.

The paper bluntly warns of rising anger at heavy taxes and gaps in wealth, especially in rural areas, where income growth is stalled and a large number of people are moving to cities looking for work.

"The number of incidents is increasing and the scale is growing. Some protests involve 10,000 people," the report says.

In one incident, it says, angry farmers killed two officials in the southern province of Hunan.

The 308-page report, prepared by a research agency of the communist party, criticizes the party for being rigid and poorly organized, and its officials for being ill-trained and out of touch in speeding up economic growth and managing their battle against corruption.

It adds to growing official acknowledgment that China's government has failed to cope with the stresses caused by rapid economic change.

Rising unemployment

The report also predicts a rise in unemployment and income gaps with a WTO membership, which China has been pursuing for 14 years.

Economists warn that competition will most severely hurt inefficient farmers in the Chinese countryside, home to some 900 million people.

"China's entry into the WTO will increase the risks and pressure on the economy," the report says.

"In the foreseeable future, massive grievances are likely to increase, which might be expressed as protests, sit-ins or even attacks."

Dissidents and human rights groups regularly report protests by farmers, laid-off workers and others in areas throughout China. Local leaders often deny that such events occur, or say they were really peaceful meetings with officials.

But the new report disputes that such clashes, including attacks on government offices and arson, frequently erupt in violence.

A farmer in one area cut off a tax collector's ear, it says, while an official elsewhere was forced to walk around in public naked.

Without fanfare, state-run Central Compilation and Translation Press published the report recently. It was not immediately clear why the government allowed the report to be sold openly, although it may be hoping to prod officials into being more responsive to the public.

Detailed report

Researchers spent 18 months visiting 11 provinces, the report says. They interviewed officials and members of the public and sent out thousands of questionnaires -- 5,221 in one province alone.

The survey lists complaints ranging from "unfair distribution of social wealth" to anger at religious policies among China's ethnic minorities.

The paper stresses tensions with China's minorities, devoting two of its nine chapters to Xinjiang, the predominantly Muslim territory in China's west.

Xinjiang separatists have been waging a campaign of bombings and assassinations, the most violent domestic threat faced by communist rule.

The report blames "increasing disorder" on the spread of different religious schools, and says government-allied clerics are being forced to compete for influence with a new fundamentalist movement.

It repeats claims that Muslim unrest is partly the fault of outside agitators.

Beijing worries that Islamic radicals such as Afghanistan's ruling Taliban militia are supplying separatists with training and weapons.

"The conflict will be more complicated, and gangs or international forces will take advantage of it," the report says.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.