Patrick Snell: Beijing smells Olympic victory

BEIJING, China (CNN) -- It's the day before the International Olympic Committee votes to decide which of five candidates will host the 2008 Olympic Games. Beijing appears to be the front-runner, but Toronto says it is gaining steam. Paris, the only candidate in this round to have hosted the Games before, is optimistic about its chances. Osaka and Istanbul are dark horses. CNNI Correspondent Patrick Snell handicaps the race as it goes into the homestretch.

Q: We have heard of small, scattered demonstrations in Moscow to protest Beijing's bid. What of that have you seen? Have they drawn any attention among the public, or among IOC members?

SNELL: The protests have been gathering momentum in recent weeks as the vote draws near. The anti-Chinese feelings manifested themselves in Moscow Wednesday when a small number of protesters and journalists were arrested following a protest. The protests obviously draw attention to the Beijing bid, which is the hot favorite to win the rights to stage the 2008 Games. The human rights issue is something that Beijing's rivals are hoping will be the Chinese downfall.

VIDEO Landmarks, infrastructure, and a modern transit system have organizers believing in Paris' 2008 Olympic bid. CNN's Peter Humi reports (July 9) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) Hosting the Olympic games may not deliver on all of its economic promises. CNN's Grant Holloway reports (July 11) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)   RESOURCES On the Scene: Patrick Snell: Beijing smells Olympic victory   2008 bid city profiles   The election procedure     MORE STORIES Toronto: The 'risk free' choice   Beijing bid: The most expensive Games ever?   Paris' big obstacle may be Athens     FEATURES Olympic dreams for China's young athletes   Olympics: A very political Games   Lessons learnt from Sydney     OPINION SI's Brian Cazeneuve previews the contenders   SI's Frank Deford's viewpoint on host city selection     IN-DEPTH The Olympic decision approaches      CNN.com Asia More news from our Asia edition

Q: What is so attractive about Beijing's bid? What puts Beijing ahead of the rest?

SNELL: The Games have never been to China before. Having come so close to staging the 2000 Games but losing out to Sydney, Chinese bid officials believe now is the time; the Games should come to the world's most populous nation (1.3 billion people). The bid has the full backing of the Chinese government. The enthusiasm in China for the Games is huge, with 600,000 volunteers already signed up to work if China gets the Games. Since 1998, China has been throwing money in a desperate attempt to get the Games, spending $15 billion each year since 1998 on infrastructure alone. China believes it has, without a doubt, the best facilities and the best organization with an unrivaled appetite to stage the Games. Every young Chinese boy or girl dreams of winning Olympic gold.

Q: Observers say Beijing is the front-runner, but is that status overblown? Do the delegates in Moscow really see Beijing as the unofficial leader?

SNELL: The key word in Moscow is "unofficial." One thing that concerns the Chinese bid team is the fact that in the last 20 years, the final vote has never gone to the so-called red-hot favorites. The Chinese are very aware that they have two rivals hot on their heels -- Paris and Toronto. Both bids from those countries have been branded "excellent" by the IOC evaluation team. The Chinese are taking nothing for granted.

Q: What buzz are the cities generating at the meeting in Moscow? Have any of the cities made a last-minute push?

SNELL: In these last crucial hours, every bid team is making desperate 11th-hour attempts to win the ultimate prize in sport. Paris and Toronto believe they can win the Games. Paris staged a phenomenally successful World Cup in 1998 and has facilities like the new Stade de France, which is envied across the world. Toronto believes it will succeed because of its own excellent infrastructure and facilities. But just a quick word on the rank outsiders: Osaka is proposing a unique array of facilities spread over three manmade islands, which has caught the attention of journalists and IOC members alike, but won't ultimately have the strength to land the Games. Istanbul retains an air of optimism but knows that because neighboring Greece will stage the 2004 Games, its chances are slim.

Q. Patrick, if you were an oddsmaker, to what city would you give the edge? Why?

SNELL: Beijing, but the vote will be a lot closer than people might think. Paris, in my opinion, will come very close to getting these Games. And I want to cite as an example the 2006 World Cup that went to Germany at this time last year. At the eve of that, no one gave Germany a prayer. South Africa was the biggest favorite. So nothing is impossible, but Beijing has just about got the momentum it needs to push through.