Jiang determined to hang on to power

Jiang has

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- Much of history is about hubris. The chronicles of yore would have been half as thick if empires had not overextended themselves -- and if emperors had not tarried beyond their three scores and ten.

President Jiang Zemin, who celebrated his 75th birthday in his house in downtown Beijing last Friday, has no plans to ride into the sunset.

His determination to hang on as chief arbiter of Chinese politics has been confirmed at the just-ended Chinese leadership conference at the seaside resort of Beidaihe.

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To a large extent, the issues that were supposed to top the Beidaihe agenda -- preparation for the 16th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress next year, relations with America, and development of the western provinces -- took a backseat to the objectives of maintaining unity and upholding Jiang Zemin Theory.

And in the eyes of Jiang, the twin goals are the same: unity is to be cobbled together under the president's teachings, such as the now-famous Theory of the Three Representations.

Why the focus on internal cohesion? Jiang and his aides had underestimated the adverse reaction to his surprise decision on July 1 to let private businessmen join the CCP.

And the anti-Jiang documents circulated by leftists, or Maoist ideologues -- which compare the president to "traitors" such as Mikhail Gorbachev and Lee Teng-hui -- are just the tip of the iceberg.

Feelings that Jiang has betrayed Marxist and socialist principles are rife particularly among party elders, "model" workers, and cadres without college education.

The big question concerning Beidaihe: was Jiang able to sideline the leftists, boost unity, and prolong his influence? The answer is yes, but with important qualifications.

According to sources familiar with deliberations at Beidaihe, Jiang dwelled at length on the imperative of cohesiveness.

"Unity of thought is particularly important as the party is making its transition from the third-generation to the fourth-generation leadership," the president reportedly said.

To counter destabilizing factors, Jiang revived a key dictum of late patriarch Deng Xiaoping: "We must combat interference [with party work] coming from both the left and right."

This was a reference to the need to rein in both the Maoist leftists and the "rightists," a code word for cadres favoring Western-style political reforms.

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The sources said Jiang was able to secure the support of a good majority of conference participants that the Three Representations Theory -- which formed the basis for admitting "red capitalists" into the CCP -- should be enshrined in the party charter at the 16th congress.

Jiang also won a couple of victories concerning personnel matters.

At Beidaihe, senior cadres went through a preliminary list of the new members of the CCP Central Committee that would be endorsed at the 16th party congress.

Jiang was able to push through the motion that because of the Maoist faction's refusal to honor the Three Representations Theory, no leftists should be inducted into the Central Committee.

Secondly, Jiang managed to give a big build-up to individual members of his Shanghai Faction, particularly his alter ego, Zeng Qinghong.

Zeng, an alternate member of the Politburo, looked set to become a full member of the policy-setting body at the 6th plenary session of the Central Committee next month.

However, Jiang the would-be helmsman also suffered a number of setbacks.

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A source close to the Jiang camp said a surprisingly large number of officials agreed with at least two points made in the leftists' fusillades.

Firstly, Jiang has broken CCP regulation by building a personality cult around himself. Secondly, he has shown excessive favoritism to his Shanghai Faction.

A number of "rightist" elders, including former National People's Congress chairman Qiao Shi, have reminded Jiang of his pledge, made at the 15th party congress of 1997, to retire by 2002.

At Beidaihe, Jiang was obliged to make it doubly clear that it was time to pass the baton to fourth-generation leaders such as Vice-President Hu Jintao.

"After undergoing rigorous training, the fourth generation is now experienced enough to handle complex challenges both at home and abroad," Jiang reportedly said.

He also reiterated his readiness, if such was the will of the party, to relinquish all official posts in the coming year or so.

"Five lakes and four seas"

It is understood the president hoped that even if he really had to retire from all party and state positions, the pre-eminence of Jiang Theory would ensure his influence well into the end of the decade.

At Beidaihe, Jiang also reaffirmed his commitment to the principle of the "five lakes and four seas," meaning cadres should be selected from different backgrounds.

Owing to the divergence of views, the question of the composition of the new Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) was not discussed at length at Beidaihe.

However, Jiang and most conference participants confirmed the growing clout of Hu and Vice-Premier Wen Jiabao. The former is considered a shoo-in for the post of party general secretary, and the latter deemed a frontrunner for the premiership.

Both Hu and Wen do not hail from Jiang's Shanghai Faction. And Hu had vigorously opposed Zeng's promotion to full Politburo status.

The status of Wen, known as a protégé of Premier Zhu Rongji, was underscored by more exposure in major media such as CCTV.

Even more disturbing to Jiang may be that the CCP's right wing is also poised to join in the fray.

Petition

A diplomatic source in Beijing said rightist intellectuals and cadres were drafting a petition to party authorities demanding a faster pace of political reform.

The petition, which might be made public before the 16th congress, said Beijing should implement real political liberalization after accession to the World Trade Organization.

The rightists also wanted better treatment for cadres, including former party chief Zhao Ziyang, who were wrongly condemned or penalized for alleged participation in the June, 1989 "turmoil."

"The rightists are counting on the fact that Jiang already has his hands full fighting the leftists," the source said.

Indeed, even on foreign policy, considered the president's forte, Jiang has received unexpectedly vehement criticism.

At Beidaihe, Jiang received an overall endorsement of his largely "pro-U.S. policy," including the fact that Beijing should pull out the stops to make the October summit with President George W. Bush a success.

However, cadres outside Jiang's Shanghai Faction also told the president his conciliatory policy toward Washington would not go down well with an increasingly nationalistic populace.

These cadres cited growing negative sentiments about Japan, which had become obvious even before Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine last week.

It is understood that if only to deflect attention temporarily, Jiang has grudgingly promised to let Hu play a bigger role in foreign policy starting from the autumn.