Kashmir swing sets strategies spinning

Militants killed by Indian soldiers after India unilaterally called off a ceasefire in Kashmir

By Mark Tully
Special to CNN

(CNN) -- The Indian Government has reversed its policy on Kashmir.

It has decided to end the unilateral cease-fire announced in November last year, but has invited the Pakistani military ruler General Pervez Musharraf for talks.

Previously India had insisted that there could be no talks until it was satisfied that Pakistan was not supporting the militant separatists in Kashmir.

India's about-turn is a recognition that the cease-fire has failed and an attempt to convince the international community, and in particular America, that this does not mean it has abandoned the search for peace in the Kashmir valley.

The announcement came shortly after the Home Minister, Lal Krishan Advani, and the defence Minister Jaswant Singh visited the state to assess the security situation.

Kashmir Special Where conflict rules

Advani is responsible for the paramilitary forces fighting the militant separatists and Jaswant Singh is responsible for the army.

Although the commander in chief of the army, General S. Padmanabhan, endorsed the cease-fire it's known that there was unease among army and paramilitary police officers about relaxing the pressure on the separatists which gave them the opportunity to decimate the ranks of government informers.

Freed of restrictions

It appears that the two ministers were convinced that the army and police needed to be freed of the restrictions imposed by the cease-fire to prevent the separatists gaining further ground.

At the same time the cease-fire has failed to persuade either the separatist groups based in Pakistan or the opposition to India within the Kashmir valley to agree to talks.

So there was no political mileage in continuing it.

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But that left a hole in Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's foreign policy.

One of it's main planks is the establishment of a new and friendly relationship with America.

That requires a policy in Kashmir which does not appear to consist solely of attempting to defeat the separatists by force, a policy which inevitably causes friction between India and Pakistan.

America is particularly concerned about the hostility between the two countries because they now both have nuclear capabilities.

The about-face appears to be a response to pressure from the foreign minister Jaswant Singh, who is the member of the cabinet most close to the Prime Minister.

Caught off guard

He has been patiently negotiating an end to the sanctions America imposed after India's nuclear explosion and is now hoping to establish the trust among President Bush's advisers which he enjoyed with the Clinton administration.

But inviting General Musharraf for talks must have been a very difficult decision for the Indian Prime Minister.

He distrusts the general because of his role in the incursions across the line of control two years ago which not only caught India off guard but also derailed the peace initiative Vajpayee had launched.

Until now the Indian prime minister has not only consistently refused to talk to the general but also questioned the legitimacy of the coup in which he took power.

The change in the Kashmir policy has not been entirely welcomed within India.

The main opposition party, the Congress, had been calling for talks and so it was in no position to oppose the move but the pro-Congress Hindustan Times has told the government "it owes the people of India an explanation of the Kashmir flip-flop."

The first responses from the Pakistan government have been encouraging but the daily Nation has warned that the initiative may just end up in "talk about talks".

Given the intransigence on both sides of the line of control in Kashmir it will take more difficult about-turns than this one if the talks are to achieve much more than that.