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Kashmir toll rises as summit nears

Pakistan-India
Leaders of India and Pakistan are due to meeting in the first summit between the two in more than two years  


SRINAGAR, India -- Police in Kashmir say at least 20 people were killed at the weekend in fresh violence ahead of an India-Pakistan summit.

Violence has escalated in the disputed Himalayan state since India called off a unilateral ceasefire in the region more than six weeks ago. Nearly a dozen militant groups are fighting New Delhi's rule in Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority state.

Indian security forces have launched a new offensive to flush out guerrillas from the troubled state since New Delhi called the ceasefire on May 23. More than 350 people, mostly separatist guerrillas, have been killed since then.

Officials say more than 30,000 people have died in separatist violence in the restive Kashmir region since a rebellion broke out at the end of 1989.

Leaders of India and Pakistan are scheduled to meet from July 14 to 16 in the first summit between the two nuclear-capable neighbours in more than two years.

Panun Kashmir, a leading body representing Hindus displaced from the valley in the decade-long rebellion, has urged United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan in a memorandum to intervene in the coming talks to highlight their plight.

An estimated 200,000 of the 350,000 Hindus displaced from the Muslim-majority northern Kashmir valley are now in Jammu and other parts of India.

Raising hopes

A police spokesman said two separatist guerrillas and an army soldier were shot dead on Sunday in a fierce gun battle in the Hyderpora area of Srinagar, the summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir. Seven Indian soldiers were wounded, police said.

On Saturday night, an Indian security officer, two militants, and a civilian were killed in separate clashes in Kupwara district 90 km (55 miles) northwest of Srinagar, police said. Two more militants and another civilian were killed in fighting elsewhere in Kashmir, they added.

Earlier on Saturday, police reported that Indian security forces shot dead 10 militants in the state in separate incidents.

The rapidly approaching India-Pakistan summit may raise more hopes for conciliation than it can deliver.

Some agreement is possible, including a resumption of cricketing ties -- the cricket-crazy countries have played each other in only one tournament since their armies stood on the brink of a fourth full-scale conflict two years ago.

Some agreement is improbable. This applies particularly to the tormented state of Kashmir, the largest and most sensitive point of disagreement between the two.

Pakistan-India
Preparations for the India-Pakistan summit are well underway

Preparations for the summit are well under way with Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee announcing that India would expedite the release of more than 400 Pakistani civilians from Indian jails.

For its part, Pakistan released the jailed cyclist Vikas Singh, arrested in Pakistan in May this year when he tried to complete a round-the-world trip by cycle, entering Pakistan without valid travel papers.

The Indian prime minister also announced a whole host of other measures to enhance people to people ties between the often acrimonious neighbors, among them an offer of scholarships to Pakistani students to study at Indian technical insitutes, month-long visas for artists, writers poets and groups of schoolchildren to visit and tour India.

Analysts believe such gestures are designed to make Vajpayee appear magnanimous ahead of a summit at which -- when it comes to the crunch -- he will have almost nothing to concede on the most contentious issue of Kashmir.

"On our side there is an attempt to make a lot of deals and, in the process, just talk about Kashmir," said Indian commentator Prem Shankar Jha.

"If Musharraf accepts that and goes back, he will not last three months."

Standing firm

India maintains that the whole of Kashmir is its territory.

It reiterated recently that it will not move from that position, so the chances of an agreement when the leaders meet in the Indian city of Agra on July 15 and 16 are minimal.

And India has even risked souring the pre-summit mood by objecting to the Pakistan military leader's plan to meet Kashmiri separatist leaders in New Delhi.

Commentators say that if India forces Musharraf to back down on meeting the All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference, it will severely limit his capacity for compromise at Agra.

Musharraf's army colleagues and militant groups will not accept a tactical retreat on Kashmir unless he has at least publicly underlined Pakistan's continued support for the separatist struggle there.

"The Pakistanis can't go back from here without something on Kashmir," said Kanti Bajpai of Jawaharlal Nehru University's School of International Studies in New Delhi .

He believes Musharraf could offer to maintain restraint along the bloodied Line of Control which divides the two countries in Kashmir, and where the guns have been silent since last year.

India could offer to tone down its huge military presence and operations on its side of the line to counter allegations of repression, but it would seek reassurance from Musharraf that he will rein in the Pakistan-based militant outfits fighting there.

"The success at Agra will not depend on each side doling out concessions to the other in some kind of a negotiation," said C. Raja Mohan, strategic affairs editor at The Hindu newspaper.

"A serious Indian commitment to negotiate on Kashmir and Pakistan's readiness to move towards a normal relationship free from violence and terrorism is the essence of the grand bargain that can be negotiated at Agra.

Reuters contributed to this report.



 
 
 
 


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