Summit stakes high for India, Pakistan

TOPLINE: Once described by former U.S. President Bill Clinton as the "world's most dangerous flashpoint," Kashmir is at the nub of the talks this week between South Asia's arch foes -- India and Pakistan. President Pervez Musharraf, who came to power in Pakistan following a military coup, has skillfully used India's invitation for talks to consolidate his position at home. New Delhi's Vajpayee government seeks to establish a slew of initiatives, including expanded bilateral trade, cultural exchanges, cricket matches and less rigorous visa restrictions. For Musharraf, however, "Kashmir is the core issue."

Should talks fail, there could be dire repercussions for Musharraf at home from hard-line Islamic factions that support Kashmir's militant groups. For India's BJP-led government, starved for domestic successes and hit by recent debacles in state elections, this could further undermine its credibility and effectiveness.

For Washington, which is speculated to have leaned on both New Delhi and Islamabad to begin a dialogue, renewed hostilities and heavy shelling across the border between two nuclear-armed foes mean further anxieties.

IN CONTEXT: Like previous U.S. administrations, the Bush administration has been anxious about the constant shelling and the crackling of gunfire across the Line of Control (LOC) that bisects the region of Kashmir. Without playing the role of overt peacemaker in the region -- like in the Middle East peace process -- the Bush administration has encouraged both New Delhi and Islamabad to kick-start the stalled talks since the Kargil conflict, when hundreds of Pakistan-backed fighters occupied remote mountaintops, provoking Indian defense forces to beat them back, a process that was accelerated by former U.S. President Clinton's persuasion with former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Since India's invitation to Musharraf, the latter has deftly used it to bring legitimacy on his presidency, besides setting the agenda for this week's talks. He has been telling Indian journalists: "Solve the Kashmir problem and we will have peace in the region." New Delhi, for its part, has quietly been emphasizing the point that the "summit ought to be viewed in its context" and there ought to be "low expectations." The talks -- set against the backdrop of the world's most romantic monument, the Taj Mahal -- might not see much love between the two neighbors who have spent much of the past 50 years bristling at each other with angry rhetoric.

•  Topline   •  In context   •  Key players   •  Bottom line

The timing of the talks has evoked much speculation in the region - one theory is that it is partly the result of U.S. pressure. Another theory: the Vajpayee government, increasingly seeking domestic success, is looking for a triumph with forthcoming polls to be scheduled for key and large states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. It is likely neither party would agree on initiatives on Kashmir -- be it the involvement of the Hurriyet conference and making it a tripartite dialogue that could cement Pakistan's argument that Kashmir is disputed territory while India maintains it is an internal matter.

Speculation has also been rife over the status of the Line of Control which could be turned into the international frontier. This effectively would maintain the status quo -- Pakistan keeps the part of Kashmir it holds and India does the same. Both governments officially dismiss this notion. India hopes Pakistan would rein in infiltration from its side into Kashmir and clamp down on religious schools -- a breeding ground for Islamic militants -- while Pakistan hopes India would reduce its large troop presence in Kashmir.

Atal Behari Vajpayee : India's "affable" prime minister who has taken a calculated political gamble in inviting the Pakistani president, hoping not only to reduce tensions in Kashmir but also expanding peace initiatives with its neighbor.

Gen. Pervez Musharraf : Pakistan's canny ruler who has turned the Indian initiative to his advantage -- not just in assuming the presidency but turning the focus of the forthcoming talks squarely on Kashmir.

L.K. Advani : India's "tough" home minister who has opposed "soft" options with Pakistan when it comes to dealing with Kashmir.

Jaswant Singh : India's foreign and defense minister who has gone along with the current initiative although many in the Indian military establishment are deeply skeptical of Musharraf's motives.

Hurriyet : Coalition of Kashmiri leaders who insist they ought to be consulted on Kashmir to reflect the aspirations of the people in the state. New Delhi frowns on their presence -- even at a tea party to be thrown for the visiting Pakistani president by the Pakistan high commissioner in the Indian capital.

BOTTOM LINE: Failure of the talks could spell domestic problems for both the Indian government as well as for the Pakistani president. Although no dramatic breakthroughs may be expected, the process of future talks between the foreign ministers of the two longtime rivals could ease some of Washington's anxieties rather than no talks at all.