All is not lost on Kashmir summit

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf (left) meets Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in Agra, India.

By Mark Tully
Special to CNN

DELHI, India -- The Agra Summit raised hopes of a thaw in relations between India and Pakistan, frozen ever since Pakistani intruders crossed the line of control in Kashmir two years ago.

It has ended without even agreement on a joint statement describing the talks. Disagreement over Kashmir led to the breakdown.

America had played a backstage role in bringing the two leaders together and there will be acute disappointment in Washington about the outcome. But this may not be the end of the two countries’ search for peace.

Where do India and Pakistan go now? At first sight the answer would seem obvious, nowhere.

A war of words over topics

VIDEO Indian PM Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf begin their face-to-face meeting. CNN's Satinder Bindra reports (July 15) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) Kashmir watches the summit closely. CNN's Kasra Naji reports. Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)   RESOURCES India-Pakistan summit   Kashmir:  Where conflict rules    CNN.com Asia More news from our Asia edition

Instead of the planned delicate diplomatic duel ending in a reconciliation and a more amicable relationship, the Agra summit degenerated into a saloon bar brawl broken up in disarray.

At first all appeared to be going well with the Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee accepting an invitation to visit Pakistan and both sides talking about the signing of an Agra Declaration.

But then the Indian information minister, Sushma Swaraj, indicated on television that the subjects of interest to India like trade and culture were being discussed but Kashmir was not.

The Pakistani President, General Pervez Musharraf, who had come to Agra determined to maintain that Kashmir was the central issue, hit back in military rather than diplomatic language.

He told journalists: "Talk of moving forward on trade, economy, culture, while you are killing each other suggests a make-believe world.”

The Indian Prime Minister wasn’t going to trade punches himself but his office made it known that while Kashmir was being discussed so was cross border terrorism.

Summit without a joint declaration

Finally, when the Pakistani President left for home at midnight, there wasn’t even an attempt to clean the blood off the floor with the usual anodyne joint statement about the talks being “cordial and constructive.”

But the next day the India’s urbane Foreign Ministers Jaswant Singh said: “The caravan of peace will continue to roll on and I have no doubt that some auspicious day it will reach its destination.”

Pakistan’s normally combative Abdul Sattar denied the summit had been a failure and said the General had returned “optimistic about prospects for better relations between India and Pakistan.”

The foreign ministers were not just doing damage limitation. If Agra proves to be a knock out blow there will be a price to pay. The international pressure, particularly from the United States which played a role in bringing the two leaders together, will not be lifted.

General Musharraf, with his ailing economy, can’t afford to treat American advice lightly.

Mr.Vajpayee will not want to risk the new friendship he has crafted so carefully with America. There are questions of domestic politics too.

If President Musharraf decides the peace initiative has failed he will have to fall back on Islamic hardliners for support with all the dangers that implies.

Attempts for peace

Mr Vajpayee has invested considerable political capital in the peace process and he has hardliners within his own Hindu Nationalist BJP party only too anxious to portray that as a failure.

There are, on the other hand, votes to be won from peace. The men and women on the streets of both countries who told television interviewers they were more concerned about economic progress than Kashmir demonstrated that.

It was the hardliners on both sides who wrecked the Agra declaration, and if all the work which has gone into that draft agreement is not to be wasted the two leaders will have to take more robust stands against those with a vested interest in hostility.

Much will depend now on whether Vajpayee has the stamina to recover from this second setback in the pursuit of peace.

An earlier agreement he signed in Lahore collapsed when Pakistani soldiers infiltrated across the line of control in Kashmir and a localised war broke out in the Kargil sector.

Life after Agra

There are opportunities to pick up the pieces after Agra. The two leaders are to meet at the United Nations later this year and Vajpayee’s acceptance of the invitation to visit Pakistan still stands.

There are some optimists on the Indian side who even say Vajpayee and Musharraf may sign the Agra Declaration in New York.

That may be hoping for too much, but it’s over pessimistic to say that India and Pakistan are back to square one.