Q & A on Myanmar: The lady and the generals

By CNN Bangkok Bureau Chief John Raedler

Q:Is the country formerly known as Burma on the brink of a potentially transforming rapprochement between its military government and its embattled pro-democracy opposition?

Raedler:The short answer is very few people know.

And those who do know - the leadership of the military government, pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi and some in the U.N. are not saying much.

This is what is known, as confirmed publicly by some of those involved:

EU delegation met with Aung San Suu Kyi recently

A dialog has been going on since last October between the government and the pro-democracy opposition. This has involved face-to-face meetings between the Nobel Peace Prize winner and the government's powerful Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt, who carries the title "Secretary 1."

Aung San Suu Kyi remains confined to her house in the capital, Yangon, where she's been since last September. But diplomats close to the situation say she is not seeking to change her circumstances - for now.

"It seems at this time that [she] is accepting for the time being, in a temporary way, these conditions - as long as the dialog goes on," says the Swedish Ambassador to Thailand Jan Axel Nordlander.

The government has released from detention Tin Oo, the veteran vice chairman of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), and more than 80 other members of the pro-democracy organization.

The often fierce propaganda campaign against Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in Myanmar's government-controlled news media has stopped.

Understanding developments

Opinions vary as to what to make of all this.

Borje Ljunggren, part of the EU delegation

The Swedish Foreign Ministry's Borje Ljunggren recently led an EU delegation to Myanmar and met with government leaders, Aung San Suu Kyi and others.

"We formed the impression," Ljunggren said of the dialog, "that the contacts were the most interesting development since 1990 - that they were promising but not yet irreversible. We expressed the hope that the contacts would develop further -- broadening as well as deepening, so as to promote national reconciliation, democracy and human rights."

"Cautious optimism" best sums up the reactions of most governments around the world - including the governments of Myanmar's harshest critics, the U.S. and Britain.

But some skeptical observers speak of a sense of deja vu. They remember a potential thaw in an earlier phase of the stand off between Aung SanSuu Kyi and the generals, in 1994, when government leader Gen. Than Shwe and Khin Nyunt met face-to-face with Aung San Suu Kyi -- and those talks went nowhere.

Just what prompted the current dialog in Yangon is much discussed in diplomatic circles around the region.

There is little doubt that western sanctions against Myanmar have hurt the country's economy, its government, its institutions and its people - adding to its poverty and isolation. "Of course sanctions have hurt," a diplomat formerly stationed in Yangon told CNN. "They have hurt the least powerful the most -- the common folk. But they have definitely hurt the regime too."

Myanmar's leaders have come under increasing pressure to reform from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) -- of which Myanmar is a member. Thailand and the Philippines have led this ASEAN pressure, subsequently joined by Malaysia and Singapore. Malaysia's pressure is thought to have had extra impact by virtue of Malaysia's support having been crucial to Myanmar's entry into ASEAN in 1997.

Malaysia also figures in another important factor in the dialog. It is no coincidence that when UN Secretary General Kofi Annan appointed a special envoy to Myanmar last year he chose a Malaysian diplomat, Razali Ismail. And it is no coincidence that since Razali's appointment, the two sides in Yangon have started talking.

The UN-Malaysian factor is also possibly revealing about the thinking of Myanmar's leaders. A widely shared view in diplomatic circles in the region holds: if the generals are going to compromise, they would much prefer to be seen doing so under the auspices of the UN and Malaysia than giving in to what they see as the harsh and hostile dictates of the US and Britain.

Movements in Myanmar

Secretary 1 Khin with U Aung Shwe, head of the chairman of the National League of Democracy

Perhaps the most tantalizing question of the many that surrounds the current dialog is: What are the two sides negotiating?

This is so secret that neither the government leaders nor the opposition leader would reveal the contents of their talks to the EU delegation that met with them in late January.

The most engaging speculation CNN has heard on the diplomatic circuit is that the negotiations revolve around the following propositions:

That Aung San Suu Kyi abandons her insistence that the results of Myanmar's 1990 election be consumated. (The NLD won that election in a landslide but the military refused to accept the result and held onto power.)

That in return the military allow the pro-democracy opposition to participate in the drafting of a new Constitution and the generals layout a concrete timetable for a new election in a few years -- and promise the world to abide by its outcome.

But some diplomats dismiss that speculation. "Why would she (Aung San Suu Kyi) trust the generals this time when they cheated her the last time?" one western diplomat in Southeast Asia asked. These observers think that the subject of the negotiations would not be so sweeping.

A concern being expressed by some in the region is what might happen after a possible resolution of the imbroglio - especially if there is an election and Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD win?

"What evidence is there that 'The Lady' and those left around her are capable of governing?" a Southeast Asian diplomat asked CNN. ("The Lady" is a term the Myanmar military has traditionally used to refer to Aung San Suu Kyi.)

"As Burma-Myanmar has shown for the past 50 years," the diplomat continued, "it is an extremely difficult country to govern. Do Britain and America comprehend that if they get their way, they could transform Burma-Myanmar from a military dictatorship into chaos?"

This envoy emphasized that both he and his country support a transition to democracy in Myanmar. "But the devil is in how you do it, over what time frame -- and how you maintain stability while making the transition. Unfortunately, the world is not as simple as it often looks from London and Washington."

For now though, the world awaits UN envoy Razali's return to Myanmar, expected in late February, and the next move in this potentially long and complicated chess game.

Perhaps most revealing about the attitude of those on either side of the chess board is that neither of them -- not the generals, nor The Lady -- has yet broken a news embargo they agreed to when the first moves were made last October.

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