General's death should not impact Myanmar talks

By John Raedler
CNN Bangkok Bureau Chief

YANGON, Myanmar -- The death of Lt.-Gen. Tin Oo is not expected to have any immediate impact on the dialogue between Myanmar's military government and pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, according to analysts and diplomats.

Regarded as the fourth-highest ranking official in the government, the general died Monday in a helicopter crash in southeastern Myanmar.

It is believed Tin Oo was not directly involved in the dialogue that has been going on since October. Details of the talks have not been made public.

"Tin Oo's role was more military than politics," one analyst told CNN, citing the general's background as army chief of staff and a successful leader in the military's wars with various ethnic minorities seeking to break away from the Union of Myanmar.

Tin Oo was one of three generals known as "Secretaries" in the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the military government is called. The others are Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt and Lt.-Gen. Win Myint.

They form the next layer of hierarchy after SPDC Chairman, Senior Gen. Than Shwe and Vice Chairman Gen. Maung Aye, the army chief.

Khin Nyunt, the intelligence chief known as "Secretary One," is believed to be the driving force behind the government's dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi. Indeed, the high points of the talks so far are believed to have been face-to-face meetings between "Secretary One" and the Nobel Peace Prize-winning democracy advocate.

The dialogue has been fostered by UN special envoy Razali Ismail, who is due to return to Myanmar in late February to further push the potential rapprochement.

Razali's scheduled return could give the first indication on whether Tin Oo's death has affected the talks.

"If Razali doesn't show up later this month, or if he does go and comes away with nothing to show for his visit, that could tell us something," one diplomat told CNN. "But I expect his efforts and the dialogue to continue, unaffected."

Several analysts told this reporter they were more interested in the impact Tin Oo's death would have on the SPDC's leadership.

As a military man, Tin Oo was close to SPDC vice chairman and army chief Gen. Maung Aye, who is thought to lead a more conservative or "hard-line" faction within the government.

If Maung Aye has lost his "right hand man" -- as one analyst described Tin Oo -- could this lead to "Secretary One" Khin Nyunt strengthening his position?

Of interest in that scenario is that Khin Nyunt is believed to lead a more "progressive" or reform-minded faction within the SPDC.

"Who goes up, down or sideways in the leadership, post-Tin Oo, could tell us a lot about the future direction of Myanmar," said one diplomat.

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