ANALYSIS: 'Mannequin' Megawati will lead by consensus

By staff and wires

JAKARTA, Indonesia (CNN) -- Megawati Sukarnoputri is unlikely to be the kind of leader to single-handedly pull Indonesia out of its economic and social morass.

That's according to analysts, who say that while Megawati may be more popular than any other Indonesian politician, they worry that the daughter of Indonesia's founding president Sukarno will become a puppet of the military.

At the very least, she is expected to govern by consensus and rely heavily on a posse of advisers and minders.

"Megawati has no strategy of how she wants to run the country," said leading political analyst Salim Said.

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Megawati has yet to prove whether she has either the political savvy or intellect to steer Indonesia towards political stability.

People who work with her say she has little patience for details and that her ability to understand political, economic, and security issues is limited.

'No position'

"Mega has no position on anything," said John Roosa, a historian of Southeast Asia at the University of California at Berkley.

"It's quite clear that she's just a mannequin."

It is unclear who Megawati is talking to in the moments before she becomes president, and how many deals she may have to cut in order to maintain her position.

But throughout the process of ending President Abdurrahman Wahid's tenure, Megawati has remained notably quiet.

Unlike her father, she shuns the limelight. She rarely gives interviews or makes public speeches and relies heavily on a small circle of advisers.

She has also never spoken publicly about what policies she would pursue as president.

"The real question is what kind of cabinet she puts together," one Western diplomatic source told CNN.

"We don't expect it to be much different than the one we have today, but we expect to her to be able to extract a greater consensus out of it than Wahid was able to."

Another political analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there was enough talent among the existing cabinet members to dramatically improve Indonesia's flagging economy and better enforce the rule of law.

"Many of the ministers are extremely competent, but they have been distracted by the Wahid impeachment process," he said.

Competent cabinet

There was general optimism among analysts that Megawati will be able to put together a cabinet that fosters stability, encourages international investors and enhances the credibility of its banks.

But there was concern her policies may largely be a product of compromises and deals, not a result of a clear mandate and firm leadership.

Megawati's close links to the military worry many because of the armed forces' history of human-rights abuses and their support for Suharto's dictatorship.

She meets regularly with military commanders, and several retired generals are high-ranking members of her party.

If Megawati becomes head of state, reforms within the military and a push to end its long-running role in politics would stop, Salim said.

Megawati is likely to order the military to crush armed separatist rebellions in the restive provinces of Aceh and Irian Jaya, he added.

Wahid has favored negotiations to end those rebellions.

"This is just the kind of figurehead the generals need," Roosa said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.