Indonesia's peaceful transfer boosts military

By Amy Chew
in Jakarta

JAKARTA, Indonesia (CNN) -- In a country where leadership change is historically marked with bloodshed, the peaceful transition of power that brought Megawati Sukarnoputri to the Indonesian presidency has given an unexpected boost to the image of the country's beleaguered armed forces.

The once mighty military has seen its power and standing whittled away following the ouster of former President Suharto in 1998.

The onset of democracy demanded that it stand back from its traditional heavy hand in the country's politics and concentrate on defense.

In the past, the military had been given top jobs in the cabinet, government departments and state-owned enterprises, ensuring their domination in the running of the country.

The military's image took a further blow in 1999 amid accusations that senior officers had given support to pro-Indonesian mobs during the violence that surrounded the East Timor independence referendum.

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When the showdown between former President Abdurrhaman Wahid and his critics in parliament came to a head last month, many eyes were on the army to see which way they would turn.

Fears of violence

As the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's highest law-making body, voted to dump Wahid and replace him with his then deputy, many feared violence would erupt.

But instead the transition went off peacefully with thousands of troops and police deployed to secure the capital Jakarta.

"Their (military) image now is very positive for having sided with the MPR," said former regional autonomy minister and political commentator Ryaas Rasyid.

Following the peaceful transition, the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) said it was now up to Megawati to forge stability in the country.

"[The army] is not the factor which determines whether President Megawati's government will be more stable than Wahid's," said a senior military source.

"The one who can determine that is the president herself. The TNI will support every head of the executive and will place itself in position as the country's instrument of national defense," he added.

There is optimism that Megawati will last the full term which ends in 2004 and not follow the fate of Wahid who was opposed less than a year after he came to power.

"Three years is not too long. Even those who wish to oust her would need time to build up their strength and by then it would be too close to the next election and there would be no point to pursue it," the source said.

Military ties

However, a former minister who stayed with Wahid to the end warned that Megawati's survival was dependent on how she handled the military.

"The capability of Megawati and the vice president to maintain their power will always be determined by the extent to which they can deal with the military," the former minister, who did not wish to be named, said.

Analysts have expressed concern that Megawati's government would be more authoritarian both because of her close ties to the military and because several key members of her party are retired generals.

However, any hard-line stance appears more likely to come from Megawati's own ex-military men than the president herself.

"Megawati is surrounded by many retired generals and many of them still have the mindset of the past," the military source said.

"This needs caution because it is not certain that the ways of the past will be suited to the present."

The military's main concern was that the diverse band of civilian leaders that brought Megawati to power, reconcile their differences and work together to rebuild the country's shattered economy.

"There should be a national commitment to realize that the remaining three years to the next election should be fully used to help bring the country out of its crisis," the source said.

"Let's face the reality, let's do the best with what we have but by God, let's not waste it."