Analysis: Europe fears for peace process

By CNN.com European Political Editor Robin Oakley

LONDON, England (CNN) -- Europe was watching and waiting in a mood of suppressed pessimism following Ariel Sharon’s victory in the Israeli prime ministerial election.

Nobody wanted to condemn a new leader before he had the chance to show his colours in office. Several took the view of French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine that Mr Sharon must be judged by his deeds and that any verdict must await the formation of his cabinet.

But most privately regard Sharon as a man famous for making war rather than peace who will have to convince them that he has changed his spots.

Their hope is that the resounding vote for Sharon represents a collapse of confidence in the politically inept Ehud Barak rather than a rejection of the peace process itself.

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Their worry is that the peace process will now be halted by Sharon’s previous insistence that there will be no talks while Palestinian violence continues and that violence itself will escalate as Palestinians seek to show they have not been intimidated by Sharon’s arrival in power.

There was an implicit warning against backsliding in comments from Robin Cook, the UK Foreign Secretary who was involved in shuttle diplomacy round the Middle East last autumn to keep the peace process alive.

Cook said that the Taba talks had established very substantial common ground. “I hope it will be possible for us to take forward that common ground and that Mr Sharon will start out from accepting the work that’s been done and see how we can build on it.”

European diplomats are aware of the shadow cast by Mr Sharon’s past as far as the Palestinians are concerned. In the past he was a relentless expander of Jewish settlements. It was his visit to Jerusalem’s Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif which set off the latest round of intifada violence.

And few have forgotten that as defence minister he was the man who let the Christian militias into the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in 1982, resulting in the slaughter of some 800 Palestinians.

European leaders have little instinctive sympathy for such a hardliner and diplomats expect his arrival in power to be something of a public relations boost for Yasser Arafat. As for the Palestinian reactions, Europeans are hoping that Mr Arafat’s own words will set the tone rather than those of his supporters.

The Palestinian president has said he will respect the election verdict of the Israeli people and hopes that the peace process will continue. But his information minister Yasser Abed Rabbo was less on message, declaring that Mr Sharon’s election was “the most foolish event in Israel’s history”.

The watching world was hoping that Marwan al-Barghouthi, a Fatah movement grassroots leader, was uttering a prediction rather than a threat when he said: “The Israelis will regret electing Sharon”.

The one consolation being seized upon by Europeans was that it has not always been more peacefully-inclined Labour governments in Israel which have made the key concessions in the peace process. Likud governments too have been prepared to make deals.

It was Menachem Begin who signed the Camp David accords with Egypt in 1979, Yitzhak Shamir who went to the Madrid peace conference in 1991 and Benjamin Netanyahu who pulled Israeli troops out of Hebron.

Europe urges Sharon to work for peace
February 7, 2001
Sharon wins landslide victory
February 7, 2001
Israelis vote amid threats
February 6, 2001
Blow for Barak as Rabbis back Sharon
February 4, 2001
Barak: 'Fate of Israel' at stake in election
February 1, 2001

Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
French Foreign Ministry
UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office
German government
European Union

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