Ethnic tension simmers in Macedonia

By Altin Raxhimi, Tirana

TIRANA, Albania -- Ever since Yugoslavia's break-up in the early 1990s, ethnic Albanians in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia have claimed that their share of the population is larger than government estimates.

Ethnic Albanians, who say they make up about 40 percent of the population, accuse the Slavic Macedonian-controlled government of deliberately downplaying their numbers.

Independent estimates put the real figure of ethnic Albanians somewhere between 23 and 30 percent.

A higher number would enable ethnic Albanians to elevate their minority status and become a so-called constituent nation.

This designation would bring with it full rights to an equal share in the government, constitutional bilingualism, and a public Albanian-language university.

The Macedonian government has refused to accept the constituent status and has given the ethnic Albanians' minority rights.

Slavic Macedonians traditionally have been dominant in government jobs and, until recently, have overwhelmingly controlled the police.

There is no love lost between the two communities, and there have been violent incidents.

The insistence of the mayor of Gostivar, Rufi Osmani, to have Albanian flags in his city's public buildings, for instance, caused violent clashes, three deaths, and his imprisonment in 1997.

In the past decade, weapons have been leaked into the ethnic Albanian community in small amounts, even though some of the weapons have been intercepted by Macedonian police. Many arms are believed to have come from the arsenal of the Kosovo Liberation Army.

But in recent years, cooperation between ethnic Albanian and Slavic political parties in the government has improved the condition of the country's biggest minority significantly.

Ethnic Albanians now control key ministries in the government, there are many ethnic Albanian police officers in the Tetovo area and the plan for a new Tetovo university is widely seen as a success.

On the other hand, opposition groups -- both Albanian and Macedonian -- are accusing the government of yielding too little or too much to the Albanians.

The National Liberation Army guerrilla group is now attempting to draw support from extreme factions in politics, according to some observers.

"They are hoping for an incident in (the town of) Tanusevci involving the police and resulting in civilian deaths," says Enkel Demi, a reporter and analyst who has had contact with NLA representatives and warned of imminent conflict in February. "It would give them some sympathy with the population."

Indeed, waves of refugees fleeing to Kosovo have prompted NATO to urge moderation in Macedonia and it has made some ethnic Albanians more sympathetic to the NLA cause.

Open warnings from politicians like Menduh Thaci, a Macedonian-Albanian, have done little to deter the NLA.

"They are traitors to the Albanian cause in Macedonia," Thaci said. "Any government should exert its power in the entire region it governs," he added.

Many in Macedonia fear a showdown between Macedonian security forces and the NLA, once spring arrives and conditions for fighting get better.

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