World Cup: What chance South Africa?

Fans spill from over-crowded stands onto the Ellis Park pitch

By CNN's Simon Hooper

LONDON, England (CNN) -- The tragedy at Ellis Park has raised doubts over South Africa's ability to host soccer's World Cup finals in 2010.

South Africa is the favourite having controversially missed out to Germany on the race to stage the 2006 tournament.

But Wednesday's stampede at the match between Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs -- 10 years after a similar disaster during a game between the same teams -- has put the focus on South Africa's ability to guarantee safety.

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Sepp Blatter, president of soccer's world governing body FIFA, has virtually promised Africa the 2010 finals. Morocco is South Africa's most serious challenger.

Author Simon Inglis, an expert on stadium safety, believes South Africa can learn from Europe.

"I would come straight to Great Britain or Germany and seek as much advice as I could. The basic principles of crowd management are the same anywhere," he said.

In England there has been a massive programme of stadium improvements since the 1989 Hillsborough disaster, when 95 fans were crushed to death during a match between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest.

Inglis said: "This disaster appears to have all the hallmarks of Hillsborough, with the problems occurring at the outside of the stadium.

"We've had these accidents and we've had to undergo a steep learning curve to get up to speed."

Inglis says safety has less to do with the stadium structures than crowd control, and that Ellis Park stands comparison with modern venues in Europe.

"It's a ground that would not be out of place in the English Premier League. It's the home of South African rugby so it hasn't been short of investment.

"But it doesn't matter how good the facilities are. So much more depends on the crowd management. South Africa is not alone in not having a wealth of expertise.

"What we've had to learn is how to do it on a scientific basis and the importance of spotting these situations before they become dangerous."

"The sharing of knowledge internationally is absolutely vital."

Mehrdad Masoudi, senior researcher with the TV programme Futbol Mundial, says South Africa remains favourite to host 2010, with a decision due in 2004, but its rivals will not let FIFA's president and its 24-member executive committee forget what has happened.

"Policing is the main issue. The police are often fans themselves. Instead of watching the crowd they are watching the match," said Masoudi.

"FIFA is liable for staging world championships -- they could lose millions of dollars.

"Safety is the primary concern. FIFA would like to find out how they would deal with thousands of fans arriving from all over the world.

"South Africa now has three years to convince FIFA that South African venues are safe. Some of those FIFA members may have short memories."

"South Africa is the only African country that can stage such a huge competition in terms of venues, hotels and communications."

S.Africa probes stadium deaths
April 12, 2001
Forty-three die in soccer stampede
April 11, 2001
Witness tells of stadium horror
April 11, 2001

Ellis Park Stadium
South African Football Association
FIFA

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