Clashing agendas in 'unity' government

A prolonged conflict in Macedonia could strain the new "unity" government

By CNN's Douglas Herbert

LONDON, England (CNN) -- Macedonia's "national unity" government faces a tough test for survival as clashing agendas vie for influence.

Of the four major parties participating in the"national unity" government unveiled on Tuesday in the Macedonian capital Skopje, two have been willing coalition partners since 1998.

But the two newcomers espouse often radically differing goals that could polarise all the factions involved if ethnic strife in the country worsens against a backdrop of continuing conflict, observers say.

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Despite an official pronouncement of "high hopes" for the new government, observers say the grass-roots mood is more tentative, given the gravity of the issues confronting the leadership.

"I don't think most people in the country think it's going to hold very long, because each of these parties has its own agenda," Juliette Terzieff, a journalist based in the area, told CNN on Tuesday.

The current government is itself a delicate balancing act between the Macedonian Slav-based VMRO party of Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski, and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA), led by Arber Xhaferi.

Since forging their governing alliance in 1998, the parties have worked in tandem to present an ethnically unified face in one of only two former Yugoslav republics -- the other is Slovenia -- to escape (until recently) the bloodshed that marred post-independence struggles elsewhere in the Balkans.

Macedonia Slavs comprise two-thirds of the country's population of just over two million people, with ethnic Albanians, the largest ethnic minority, representing up to 30 percent, concentrated mostly in the capital and in northwestern parts of the country, especially the second city, Tetovo.

Radical in the past

Founded in 1990, the VMRO traces its origins to the Macedonian nationalist movement of the late 19th century, when the country was part of the Ottoman Empire.

In the past, according to the European Forum, the VMRO cast itself as a staunchly anti-Serbian, anti-Communist, nationalistic party "that only moderated its style when confronted by the reality Macedonia faces." The party has also found a natural ally in Bulgaria, which shares a similar cultural and linguistic heritage.

In the current conflict, the VMRO has sought to cast itself as open to discussion with Xhaferi's party on a host of issues centring on key ethnic Albanian demands for equal status with Macedonian Slavs and the use of the Albanian language in schools and other institutions.

The VMRO has proven cagier, however, when it comes to another key ethnic Albanian wish: a constitutional change enshrining them as equal ethnic partners to the Slavs in the Macedonian confederation.

"They are saying that all the questions have been open, and we can discuss them," said Gordana Icevska, a reporter for Transitions Online, based in Skopje, Macedonia. But they (the VMRO) are not willing to accept a change in the constitution, which would say Macedonia is two equal ethnic groups."

The two new players in the unity government are Imer Imeri's Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP), the ethnic Albanian party in opposition since 1998, and its opposite number on the ethnic Macedonian Slav side, the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), successor to the Communist Party of Macedonia.

Both parties served in relatively short-lived ruling coalitions in the 1990s. The PDP, which like the DPA, supports the use of the Albanian language and flag in public life, has in the past cultivated a more radical image than the DPA. In 1991, the party backed an Albanian boycott of the census.

The European Forum noted in 1997 that despite polarising tendencies between old and young members of the party, the majority appeared to reject either the idea of secession or creation of a "Greater Albania" that would straddle parts of Macedonia itself.

"There is no consensus, however," the Forum wrote, "as to what autonomy for the Albanian minority should consist of."

During their own stint in power, which ended in 1998, the SDSM, successor to the League of Communists of Macedonia (the ruling party in the former Yugoslav republic) "refused to seriously negotiate with Albanians on anything," Terzieff said.

Despite a nationalistic track record in opposition, Icevska believes the SDSM will bring a more moderate approach to the unity government. "They will be on the same course as the other parties in trying to find a solution," she said.

Though none of the parties publicly support the ethnic Albanian guerillas of the National Liberation Army, other ideological differences may conspire to make the new unity government a fleeting affair. In return for agreeing to enter the unity government, for instance, the SDSM is pressing for early elections.

"I think that this coalition is not a coalition for the future," Icevska said. "It's just one that will help the state to survive until the next elections."

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Democratic Party of the Albanians' leader's statement
VMRO-DPMNE (in Macedonian)
SDSM (in Macedonian)
Macedonian political parties (on Balkan Report)

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