Q&A: Threat to N.Ireland Assembly

Trimble has threatened to resign if the IRA does not begin handing over its arms

LONDON, England (CNN) -- Northern Ireland's First Minister David Trimble has threatened to resign over the continuing deadlock in the peace process, a move which could see the suspension of Northern Ireland's power-sharing assembly.

CNN's European political editor Robin Oakley explains how the crisis has developed.

Q: Why is David Trimble’s future as First Minister of Northern Ireland in doubt?

A: Disappointed that there had been no decommissioning of Irish Republican Army (IRA) weapons after his gamble of sharing power with Sinn Fein, the republican political party, Trimble, who is also leader of the Ulster Unionists, issued an ultimatum in May.

He lodged a post-dated letter with the Speaker of Northern Ireland’s devolved Assembly saying that he would resign within six weeks if there had been no decommissioning by July 1.

Q: Was there a wider political explanation for such a drastic move?

A: Yes. Trimble was aware of growing discontent among Unionists over the arms question. He feared that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Ian Paisley, which opposed the Good Friday agreement, would make big gains in the UK General Election on June 7 by exploiting that unease. He was hoping his pledge would make it less of an election factor.

Q: Did his tactics work?

A: No. His Ulster Unionists lost three seats overall at the Westminster parliament and the DUP gained three on June 7. Both political extremes gained with Sinn Fein increasing its Westminster representation from two seats to four, while the moderate SDLP only maintained its previous standing with three seats.

Q: How else has the election changed Northern Ireland politics?

A: For the first time Sinn Fein took more nationalist votes than the more moderate SDLP. Younger voters seem to have been more attracted by Sinn Fein and the DUP at the expense of the more moderate alternatives in the nationalist and Unionist communities.

Northern Ireland is becoming more starkly split: the unionist parties of Trimble and Paisley took 49 per cent of the votes, the SDLP led by John Hume and Sinn Fein, led by Gerry Adams, took 43 per cent.

Q: So what happens now?

A: Some had expected a challenge to Trimble for the Ulster Unionist party leadership. That did not happen on June 23 at the first party meeting after his party’s election disaster but it could well happen if he makes good his threat to resign as First Minister.

That would in itself be a confession that his strategy had not worked. The IRA seems unlikely to move to rescue him with a decommissioning gesture.

Q: How likely is it that the Northern Ireland Assembly will be suspended?

A: It has happened before and what may lead to suspension is that the DUP and some UUP hardliners are insisting that if the IRA has not given up some arms by July 1 then Sinn Fein should be thrown out of the power-sharing executive.

Victories for Unionist hardliners in the 1974 General Election led to the collapse of the last power-sharing experiment in Northern Ireland, the Sunningdale Agreement.

Q: Whose decision will it be whether or not to suspend the Assembly?

A: Ultimately that decision rests with the government in London. In February 2000 the then Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, suspended the Assembly because of the lack of IRA decommissioning and reimposed direct rule.

The Assembly was reinstated in June after the IRA pledged to “completely and verifiably” put its weapons beyond use and Trimble persuaded the Unionists to re-enter power-sharing on that basis.

Q: How soon might suspension happen?

A: If Trimble quits the Assembly can continue without a leader until August 12. At that point the government would have to decide whether to suspend the assembly or to allow it to hold fresh elections for the First Minister’s position.

That would risk the election of a hardliner whose arrival in power would make any deal on weapons decommissioning more unlikely.

Q: What chance is there now for survival of the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process?

A: As well as demanding the immediate handover of arms by the IRA, the DUP are calling for fundamental revision of the Good Friday Agreement.

Sinn Fein is demanding more “demilitarisation” and changed attitudes to policing. Its chairman Mitchell McLaughlin has said the Good Friday Agreement needs “reconfiguring."

Discussions are being renewed between London, Dublin and Belfast on all those issues. Meanwhile community violence is escalating and the flashpoint marching season is approaching.

Key questions will be whether the DUP is prepared to make any concessions and whether the toughening of Ulster Unionist opinion is permanent.

Q: So is the peace process doomed?

A: Not completely. There are strong opponents of the Good Friday Agreement but all the parties have participated in the power-sharing process.

Votes for parties who supported the Good Friday agreement totalled more than 74 per cent of those who voted. More than fifty per cent in opinion polls believe the chances of peace are better than they were five years ago.

Demographic factors too may concentrate minds. There are a growing number of Catholics in Northern Ireland and as they reach near equivalence with the protestants it becomes more obvious to all that the country can only be governed by the two traditions working together.