Now Blair expected to push for euro

Britian would need 2bn euro banknotes and 13-14.5bn coins

By CNN's Graham Jones

LONDON, England (CNN) -- Re-elected British PM Tony Blair is expected to move relatively swiftly towards taking Britain into the European single currency.

He made plain during the election campaign he wanted Britain to join the euro, he now had a mandate to launch a campaign to rally public opinion.

The question is the timetable. As the polls were closing, British newspapers were reporting that Blair planned to kick-start a national pro-euro drive as early as September.

They said Blair had grown in confidence about winning a referendum during the election with the failure of opposition leader William Hague's "Save the Pound" speeches to make any impact.

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Blair could use the annual conference of Britain's trade union movement, the Trades Union Congress, in September -- after MPs summer break -- to trigger a "great debate" on the euro.

This would still not commit him to an early referendum, however.

First Labour ministers would assess public opinion -- they would not wish to lose such an important vote -- and then they would have to assess whether the Government's "five economic tests" for entry had been met.

Blair, who said in January if Labour were returned their would be a decision on euro membership within two years, is believed to want a referendum in autumn 2002.

But the stumbling block could be Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, Blair's respected financial minister but former leadership rival. He is known to be more cautious and is looking to a referendum in autumn 2003.

Opinion polls during the campaign showed British people still against euro membership.

But when asked if membership of the euro was inevitable, and asked if they would support entry if the government and business told them it was in their interests, the answer was different.

The new government's campaign for the euro would begin with information packs for businesses and speeches by senior ministers.

These would run alongside a pro-euro campaign by the pressure group Britain in Europe (BiE), which is backed by politicians from all parties, including the Tories' ex-deputy PM Michael Heseltine and ex-Chancellor Kenneth Clarke.

BiE kept quiet during the campaign -- the Tories not wanting to be blamed for an election defeat -- but the group is known to be keen to get off the starting blocks.

Business leaders said to be frustrated with the British governments "prevarication" over the euro and ready to speak out immediately include Carlos Ghosn, president of Nissan Global, Nick Scheele, president of Ford Europe, Lord Haskins, chairman of Northern Foods and Niall Fitzgerald, chairman of Unilever.

The BiE is also said to be ready after the election to publish "favourable" research showing Britain's readiness to join under the five economic tests.

Critics say any conclusions on this issue would be subjective. The five economic tests are: is the UK business cycle compatible with the eurozone; is there enough flexibility in the economy to deal with problems; would entry encourage firms to make long-term investments in Britain; would entry damage the City's financial services industry; and will it promote growth, stability and jobs?

Tory leader William Hague, who is a firm eurosceptic, warned during the campaign that Blair would try to "steamroller" Britain into the euro if re-elected.

But his campaign beginning with the unveiling of a digital clock with the slogan "Twelve Days to Save the Pound" was generally seen to have backfired.

The last Labour government already published a "National Changeover Plan" detailing the extensive preparations which would be needed to join the single currency -- not least the issue of at least two billion euro banknotes and 13-14.5 billion coins.

If the decision were made that the five economic criteria had been met were taken in the spring of 2002, a referendum would follow in autumn, 2002; the actual joining of the eurozone and participation of financial institutions would probably follow in early 2004, with euro banknotes and coins being issued later that year or in the first part of 2005.

Gordon Brown's favoured option could see the whole process not being completed until mid-2006, by which time another general election would have had to be called.