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Christiane Amanpour: What next for Israel?


Christiane Amanpour

CNN's Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour answers questions about the Israeli election result, and its impact on the future of the Middle East peace process.

Q. What effect did the lower turnout have on the final result?

AMANPOUR: Only 62 percent of Israeli voters turned out, according to tonight's figures. That's the lowest ever in an Israeli election, where the turnout is usually above 80 percent. This was a result of an angry Israeli electorate who wanted to punish Prime Minister Ehud Barak for failing to bring peace OR security. One of the key groups boycotting the elections was the Israeli Arabs, who usually vote solidly Labour. They said they would stay away from the polls because of anger that Israeli police killed 13 Arabs who are Israeli citizens last October during demonstrations in sympathy with the Palestinians. The low turnout hurt Barak most but it means according to analysts here, that with key segments of society staying away, Ariel Sharon will have less of a mandate as prime minister.

Q. What effect do you think the result will have on the peace process?

AMANPOUR: This is a question many people are asking. Ariel Sharon say he considers the Oslo peace process dead. He says he will negotiate with the Palestinians but only after bringing security to Israel, only after the violence stops. No-one is quite sure how he will do that, since the Palestinians say they will not stop their uprising or Intifada until their peace demands are met. Sharon says he knows both sides have to make painful compromises for peace, but he also says he will offer none of the concessions Barak did, he will not discuss a shared capital in Jerusalem, nor dismantling of Jewish settlements in occupied land, and he would only give the Palestinians a state on land they already have. In the words of one Arab leader, the Prime Minister of Lebanon, "Sharon wants to keep the land and have peace. It won't work." Other observers believe Sharon will try to make some interim agreements with the Palestinians and try to put a final agreement off. The Palestinians say that won't work. So the progress of the peace process remains very much in question with this election.

Q. What effect will the result have on the Palestinian uprising?

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AMANPOUR: The Palestinians say they will continue their uprising no matter who was elected. They say until an Israeli government implements agreements already signed, and negotiates a final peace that gives Palestinians a state, evacuates some settlements, and decides the fate of Jerusalem as well as address the issue of the return of Palestinian refugees, they will continue their struggle. They say Sharon will not succeed in his goal of achieving security ahead of peace.

Q. Who will lead the Labour Party now - does Ehud Barak have a future?

AMANPOUR: Having lost by such a huge unprecedented margin, Ehud Barak resigned as leader of the Labour Party. The went down to the biggest defeat in Israeli history, this after being elected by a landslide 21 months ago. He says he will remain in the party and he says he is convinced his path towards peace is the only path. He said he may have been ahead of his time, and neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians were yet ready for the painful compromises and concessions needed for peace. The political dynamic in Israel is so fluid and unpredictable that no-one is counting Barak out for good.

Q. Do you think Israel will unite behind Sharon - is a government of national unity a real possibility?

AMANPOUR: Well the low turnout means there is no overwhelming mandate for Sharon, say analysts. And Sharon who says he wants to unite the country has yet to convince Labour to join a unity government. If he can only govern with a right wing and religious coalition, that will be more divisive than unifying.

Q. How will the U.S. view the result?

AMANPOUR: The U.S. says Israel is a democracy, the people will elect it's own leader and Washington will work with whoever is prime minister. The U.S. also has a new president and the new Bush administration says it will take time to reassess the situation. Secretary of State Colin Powell says he will visit the region soon. But analysts say it'll be a while before the Bush administration fully engages, and is unlikely to be as intimately involved as the Clinton administration was.

Q. How will Israel's neighbours view the result?

A. The Arab neighbours view this election with a mixture of dread and delight. Many are concerned about Sharon's reputation as being against every peace process Israel has engaged in. They are concerned that he will not negotiate on the principal of land for peace, and they are worried that he says he will not enter final peace agreement with the Palestinians, rather another series of interim agreements. Some leaders predict a rise in tension and violence in the region .On the other hand, some say Sharon will want to make peace and will be able to deliver.