Author: Iran faces gradual reform

By CNN's Douglas Herbert

LONDON, England -- The thumping victory of reformers in Iran's elections lays the groundwork for a gradual loosening of hardline strictures, a regional expert says.

But despite an ironclad popular mandate to reform, President Mohammad Khatami, a cleric himself, will probably avoid any course that may be construed as a direct challenge to the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"Whenever there has been a crunch, both leaders have come together, because each needs the other," said Dilip Hiro, a journalist and author of 'Neighbours, Not Friends: Iraq and Iran.'

Hiro takes exception to the simplistic portrayal of Khatami's victory as a green light for a dramatic showdown between those forces that would lead Iran down the path of western-style democracy, and those who would keep it firmly anchored in Islamic fundamentalism.

Rather, he sees a more nuanced evolution in the works -- one whereby the 57-year-old moderate cleric will strive to foster the development of a democratic political culture, while averting any bloody clashes in the streets.

To be sure, Hiro said, the election has fractured the conservative camp, some of which may now find itself gravitating to the centre-left in a nod to society's reformist trend.

But the outcome of the election has not altered the basic dynamics of Iranian society. That is divided between an "upper level" of spiritual rulers -- in the form of an 83-member 'Assembly of Experts', or mullahs, that elects the supreme leader -- and a "lower level" comprised of an executive, legislative and judicial branch.

The structure, Hiro noted ironically, bears many resemblances to that in the United States, where a strict system of checks and balances aims to ensure that no single branch of government can rule with absolute authority.

Since last year's parliamentary elections, in which reformers scored a massive triumph, left-leaning forces have controlled the presidential and legislative branches. The judiciary, however, has remained in the hands of the hardline clerical establishment, along with the country's security forces.

Avoiding violence

Hiro sees an uneasy power-sharing arrangement taking shape in Iran, with both Khamenei and Khatami treading cautiously in order to promote their diverging agendas.

For Khatami, the balancing act means avoiding violence on the streets which could give hardliners a pretext for cracking down, while at the same time trying to deliver on as many promises to reform society as possible.

Khamenei, for his part, will be keen to ensure that at least one of the branches of power remains firmly in the grip of the conservative establishment.

For Khatami, the trick will also be to check the pace of reform lest conservatives seize on the accelerating pace of change to unleash accusations that reformers are bent on emasculating the moral codes of Islam.

The hardliners' recent moves to close down liberal newspapers and arrest dissidents, Hiro said, may have been a reaction to the perception that the reformist camp had gone "overboard," failing to show any restraint. Much the same phenomenon, he noted, occurred in the former Soviet Union, when Mikhail Gorbachev's policies of openness triggered a democratic free-for-all that spiralled out of the leaders' control.

Iran's leaders are eager to prevent a similar sequence of events in their own reforming country, Hiro said.

Even if the leaders manage to co-exist peacefully, they will continue to clash over differing world views, Hiro said.

The main difference between the two leaders, the author believes, is the lack of a common understanding as to what 'freedom' means. "I don't think anyone has the answer," Hiro said.

In the end, The issue of U.S. support remains a question mark hanging over Iran's reforms. While much of Europe now conducts trade with Iran, the United States has maintained unilateral sanctions against the Islamic country.

The two countries severed ties after the 1979 hostage-taking at the U.S. embassy in Tehran.