Analysis: Arafat's Rubicon

By CNN's Jerrold Kessel

JERUSALEM (CNN) -- The Palestinian Authority must confront its Rubicon following the assassination of Israeli Tourism Minister Rechavam Zeevi, Yasser Arafat has been told.

The eyes of the international community are on the Mideast after the killing of the right-wing hardliner in Jerusalem, but Arafat has been made aware that he has to choose whether to cross the line and remain part of the peace process.

Zeevi's shooting outside his hotel room on Wednesday threatens to wreck the hesitant steps being taken by Arafat's Palestinian Authority and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon towards a resumption of negotiations.

Both sides have come under intense international pressure to make progress in the peace process since the September 11 terror attacks in the United States.

But with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine admitting it carried out the assassination of Zeevi in retaliation for the killing of its leader, Abu Ali Mustafa, the focus has shifted back to Arafat.

AUDIO CNN's Jerrold Kessel: The Israeli security cabinet has convened in emergency session 2.18MB / 198 sec WAV sound   MORE STORIES Israel cuts contact with Palestinians    EXTRA INFORMATION • Profile: Rechavam Zeevi  • In-Depth: Struggle for peace  • Mustafa Zibri and the PFLP

The Palestinian Authority president has condemned the shooting and sent his condolences to Zeevi's family, but he has been told to "keep a lid on the violence."

U.N. Middle East envoy Terje Larsen, British Foreign Minister Jack Straw and French authorities spoke to Arafat within hours of the shooting to hammer home the message.

It is an absolutely critical moment for the U.S.-led efforts to bring about a change in the tenor of the Palestinian-Israeli relationship -- from a year of violence to one of political dialogue.

If Arafat cannot haul in the attackers, the region could see an escalation of violence -- something everyone is aware of.

If nothing can be done in the immediate aftermath of September 11, it appears to many observers that perhaps, nothing ever will.

Arafat told Larsen he understands the job he must do -- and the consequences if he does not, the U.N. envoy said, adding that Arafat recognises the Palestinian Authority's interests are best served by embarking on dialogue rather than conflict.

But the question is whether Arafat can deliver. It is an incredibly difficult task and a delicate moment.

Eyes are also on Israel's Sharon.

His coalition in the Knesset is secure -- despite the threat that Zeevi's party colleagues may withdraw from Sharon's government.

And Sharon had done just enough before Wednesday's killing to appease the international community by taking small conciliatory steps such as removing troops from parts of Hebron.

One thing that could save Arafat's awkward position is if Sharon takes military action.

It was Sharon, after all, who launched the attack on Lebanon in 1982 after the attempted assassination of Shlomo Argov, the Israeli ambassador to London.

In the wake of Zeevi's death, Sharon has already rescinded his decision to lift some travel restrictions and remove some blockades, and has broken ties with the Palestinian Authority.