Doha talks: Same again or a new era?

WTO HQ: Few protests for the Geneva-based group this time

By CNN's Charles Hodson

LONDON, England (CNN) -- As the World Trade Organization prepares for its ministerial meeting in Doha, Qatar, the decibel diplomacy is building up to full volume, with yells, chanting, mutterings, and plaintive cries vying to be drown out all other sounds.

Four groups are straining to put over their respective messages in the run-up to what many hope will mark the start of a new round of global trade talks and a chance to shrug off the resounding failure of the WTO's last such meeting, in Seattle in 1999.

The yells come from the anti-globalisation protesters who stole the headlines two years ago -- a little more muted today, but still strident.

The UK-based World Development Movement says poor countries lose around $1.9 billion a day because of unjust trade rules, 14 times the amount they receive in aid.

Several hundred representatives of non-governmental organisations will be in Doha, but the protesters will probably be mostly staying at home.

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"There was never going to be a big demonstration in Qatar," says Guy Taylor of the Globalise Resistance, "partly because of the expense of getting there, partly because of the draconian laws of that state, so there'll be rallies and meetings and discussions and actions across the whole planet."

Another powerful sound dominating the airwaves is the chanting of the developed nations' mantra that free trade is good for everyone.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick sees the movement towards free trade, with its emphasis on openness and co-operation, as a bulwark against terrorism.

The WTO itself says lower tariffs will kick-start world trade, set to expand by only around 2 percent this year after soaring some 12 percent in 2000 -- and with economies slowing worldwide, governments are eager for export-led economic growth.

Success at this meeting, World Bank President James Wolfensohn told CNN, is also very much in the interests of the developing nations: "There is no sense in trying to help developing nations develop their capacity and build their economic viability if you don't give them markets."

The Bank last week released a report saying the abolition of all trade barriers could boost global income by $2.8 trillion dollars and lift 320 million people out of poverty by 2015.

But the developing nations themselves -- three-quarters of the WTO's membership -- are the mutterers of the piece. They are angry at the failure of previous trade rounds to bring them benefits of bringing down tariff barriers, and are now openly sceptical.

Their perception is that wealthier economies have done well from previous rounds of trade negotiations, while the slender benefits to poorer nations have failed to lift them out of poverty or assist them with their debt burden.

The main focus of this scepticism is trade in agricultural goods, an issue almost certain to throw a spanner into the works in Doha.

The European Union, the United States, Japan and Switzerland spend billions of dollars a year on farm subsidies, all but closing their markets to imports from poorer nations, many of whose economies are based around agriculture.

The EU has now signalled its willingness to reduce its export subsidies, a move that may prove crucial to success in Doha.

The EU's Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy told CNN that ongoing reform of the Common Agricultural Policy means the Union is eager to grant better access to its markets, but refused to be drawn on the chances on removing export subsidies altogether.

But in return the EU is pressing for environmental measures and labour standards to be linked to trade deals, with a stronger relationship between the WTO and international bodies, above all the UN's International Labour Office which Brussels hopes will set minimum standards.

Another key area set to bring developing nations into conflict with major corporations based in the industrialised world centres on the so-called trade-related aspects of intellectual property (Trips).

The world's leading pharmaceutical companies hold the patents on drugs that are essential in combating diseases most prevalent in poorer nations, above all HIV/AIDS.

Those nations are demanding that patent rights be overridden to allow them access to medicines they desperately need to control the spread of such diseases.

And the plaintive cries vying to be heard? They're coming from those observers who say there must be some progress whatever happens.

They compare the process of trade negotiations with a bicycle: unless it moves forward at a fair pace, it will topple over. Any failure to open a new trade round at Doha, it's argued, would lead to the collapse of the present institutions, and restarting the process from scratch would be well-nigh impossible.

Heard all together, the four sets of sounds currently add up to an ugly discord. Few over those involved in preparing the talks are willing to optimistic, though they note that their work is looking a lot more complete than it did in the run-up to the abortive Seattle meeting in 1999.

Whatever happens, Doha will mark at least a modest success in the history of world trade: on Saturday the world's most populous nation, China, will complete the formal process of being accepted as a member of the World Trade Organisation, along with Taiwan and the tiny Pacific state of Vanuatu.

A breakthrough in establishing a new trade round may not be guaranteed, but at least the number of nations with a stake in success is increasing.