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Scientists warn of climate devastation
GENEVA, Switzerland -- The full extent of the potentially devastating effects of global warming has been spelled out in a U.N. report. Climate change could wipe out tropical islands and Alpine skiing retreats, while melting ice caps could unleash changes that would continue for centuries, according to the report published Monday. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said poor countries would bear the brunt of the devastating changes.
But it warned that the rich would not be immune, with southern Europe subjected to harsher droughts and higher temperatures and U.S. coastal regions vulnerable to rising sea levels and more severe storms. "Projected climate changes during the 21st century have the potential to lead to future large-scale and possible irreversible changes in Earth systems," said the report. The report was a summary of 1,000 pages of research into "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability," conducted by some 700 scientists. Given the political sensitivities of the climate debate, the 19-page summary was subject to line-by-line scrutiny by government representatives during weeklong discussions prior to release. U.S. and China singled outThe final message said the effects of man-made climate change will lead to more "freak" weather conditions like cyclones, floods and droughts and massive displacement of populations in the worst-affected areas. There was also the potential for enormous loss of both human and animal life due to the greater risk from diseases like malaria as the mosquito widenes its reach and the habitat of entire animal species is wiped out. The report said global economic losses from so-called natural catastrophes increased from about $4 billion per year in the 1950s to $40 billion in 1999. Total costs were in reality twice as high, taking into account smaller weather-related events, it said. The Geneva report followed one released last month in Shanghai, China, by the international climate change panel. That predicted that global temperatures could rise by as much as 10.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. It said the increase was much higher than expected and there was clear evidence that industrial pollution, including emissions from cars, was to blame. The third volume, on solutions, will be released in March. But effective international action remains elusive, not least because of the reluctance of the U.S. to commit itself to firm targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, which trap heat in the atmosphere, and the push in developing countries like China toward economic progress. Africa vulnerableScientists have for years warned about the impact of global warming. What is significant about the new reports, however, is the degree of precision about the extent and impact of climate change. "The effects of climate change are expected to be greatest in developing countries in terms of loss of life and relative effects on investment and the economy," said the report released in Geneva. Changing rainfall patterns coupled with population growth would lead to huge pressure on water supplies, it predicted. There was little respite from the gloomy forecasts. The report said that at present 1.7 billion people live in areas where water resources are tight. This was likely to increase to about 5.4 billion over the next 25 years. It said a reduction in crop yields would lead to an increase in malnutrition in vulnerable areas -- especially in drought-prone parts of Africa. Even more serious was the risk from rising sea levels in densely populated coastal areas ranging from Egypt to Poland to Vietnam. "The most widespread direct risk to human settlements is flooding and landslides," it said. The report said that the change in temperature was most extreme in the polar regions. "Polar regions contain important drivers of change. "Once triggered, they may continue for centuries, long after greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, and cause irreversible impacts on ice sheets, global ocean circulation and sea-rise." The report predicted that half of Alpine glaciers could disappear in the next 100 years, and said less reliable snow conditions would have an adverse impact on winter tourism in Europe. In the U.S., sea-level rise would result in increased coastal erosion, flooding and risk of storm surges, particularly in Florida and much of the Atlantic coast. The Associated Press contributed to this report. RELATED STORIES: Pessimism surrounds EU climate talks RELATED SITES: Global Change | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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